Hope After The Crash

To those of you who have lost money in cryptocurrency, here is my advice to you.

Don’t get depressed.

Don’t turn to drugs.

The world is not going to end.

You are young, and you have plenty of time to recover.

You have a lot of years left in you.

Things are never as bad or as good as they seem to be.

Take a few deep breaths and try to learn from this experience.

Write down on a piece of paper the lessons that you have learned.

If you have lost all your money, or a sizable chunk of that money, you now understand that the media always goes to extremes.

The media always looks on the bright side when the market is going good; the media always looks on the dark side when the market is going bad.

That’s why the vast majority of the people lose their money.

The media is often not your friend.

You always have to employ equanimity when evaluating the markets. You have to temper your greed, and you have to temper your fears.

Secondly, never bet more than you can afford to lose.

As a smaller investor, you don’t have access to all the information that is out there. You have no idea what these CEOs and their lieutenants are doing.

They could be robbing the company blind, and you wouldn’t know it.

And, yes, they do lie.

If you are going to bet the ranch on anything in life, bet the ranch on yourself.

Never bet the ranch on somebody else.

Thirdly, nobody can predict the future.


The best thing you can do is avoid all these technical analysts who claim they can predict the future by looking at graphs from the past.

It can’t be done.

It looks like it can be done because they point to events that have already transpired. Then they direct your attention to patterns that preceded major recessions.

They make it look easy.

If it were that easy, everybody would do it, and everybody would be a billionaire.

But everybody isn’t a billionaire.

A better approach is to think about the vehicle that you are investing in, read as much as you can about it, listen to as much as you can about it, and then think about it some more.

Ask a lot of questions along the way.

It’s also helpful for you to invest in stocks and vehicles that you believe in.

In my life, I made a significant amount of money in Apple Computer and Las Vegas Sands. I made that money because I used those products, and I believed in those products.

Currently I have my money invested in Amazon and Bitcoin.

That’s it. Just those two.

I use Amazon. I like Amazon. I will continue to use Amazon.

Amazon makes my life easier. I don’t have to run out to a store and waste hours looking for something that isn’t there.

It is that belief in the company that will sustain me when the fearmongers move into action.

Now, of course, I am not going to be stupid. I’ve only invested a certain portion of my money with Amazon.

I’m going to hold money back because I don’t know where the markets are going. Maybe the markets are going down.

As it turns out, that’s where I believe the markets are going. I believe that the Fed has not been aggressive in taming inflation and that the stock market will drop another 10 to 20% more off its high.

I want to have some money in reserve so I can buy more Amazon when the market falls.

I believe that Amazon is the Sears Roebuck of this century.

Still, I’m not going to be totally stupid. I’m not going to invest every last dime I have in Amazon, because I have no idea what the future will hold.

Just as Sears Roebuck fell, so will Amazon fall someday. Maybe this will happen tomorrow.

Therefore I will temper my greed and buy less than I would like to buy.

The same goes for Bitcoin.

I believe in Bitcoin. I think Bitcoin is a valuable store of value for me.

When Bitcoin falls, I will buy some more, but I am not going to bet the ranch on Bitcoin.

I’m not going to bet the ranch because I have no idea what the government and the whales will do to it.

One more piece of advice, please.

Don’t put too much faith in these CEOs who show up on television.

They’re there for a reason.

They are there too sell their company, not necessarily to look out for your best interest.

There are many examples of hucksters who look impressive and effective on news shows and commercials.

The benchmark for me is Robert Brennan of First Jersey Securities.

When he was pitching his firm, he would show up in front of a helicopter.

He would ask you to grow with him as he flew over the Grand Coulee Dam.

It was a very effective ad.

He looked like a man of action. His company, First Jersey Securities, looked like it had its shit in gear.

Unfortunately, First Jersey Securities was a pump and dump scheme.

Robert Brennan was convicted of securities fraud and was sentenced to nine years in jail.

First Jersey Securities went bankrupt.

Caveat Emptor.

These are the lessons that have taken me a lifetime to learn.

If I had learned these lessons at the age of 20, I would’ve been a wealthy man by now.

I’m doing OK, but I could’ve done a lot better.

I want you to be a wealthy person when you are my age.

Don’t give up. Don’t kill yourself. Don’t descend into drugs and alcohol.

There is hope.


Archer Crosley

Copyright 2022 Archer Crosley All Rights Reserved