The Bond Market

July 27, 2022July 24, 2022 ~ archercrosley

It took me a lifetime, but I think I figured out the bond market.

I’m going to use the term bond as a generic term to describe all bonds whether they are long term or short term. Obviously short term bonds would be two year treasures. Long-term bonds would be ten year and thirty year treasuries.

I want you to think of the bond market as a bank, a safe place to put your money when you’re scared or when things aren’t working out correctly.

Or you can think of the bond market as the person you should’ve married but didn’t. You didn’t marry the bond market because you didn’t find her attractive. Instead, you went for the super-attractive gold-digging bitch.

And you got burned.

Maybe this has happened to you several times.

It happens because nobody gets an erection over the bond market.

The bond market is where you put your money when you’re on the ropes, or when you’re afraid.

That’s what the bond market is: a giant bank of money that lies in wait for when the bull market in stocks comes around again.

For the most part, the bond market is a pretty boring place. There’s not much action there.

What really moves the bond market is when the stock market is plunging and people are running in fear.

When that happens, investors pour their money into long-term treasuries as opposed to short-term treasuries. That is principally because, before the bear market begins, long-term treasuries pay better than short term treasuries.

When the bear market begins to arrive, when the specter of recession looms, when the Fed is raising interest rates, irrational fear sets in and investors flood out of the stock market.

As that happens, and as money flows into the bond market, there is greater demand for bonds. This raises the price for bonds and correspondingly lowers the yield of those bonds.

That’s okay because investors will happily accept a 1 to 2% return in the bond market rather than a major loss in the stock market.

While money is flowing in from the stock market, investors are also flooding out of short-term bonds into long-term bonds. They are doing so because long-term bonds in a pre-bear market still have a higher yield.

This has the effect, through greater demand, of raising the price of long term bonds and lowering the price of short term bonds.

This has a corresponding effect of lowering the yield of long-term bonds and raising the yield of short term bonds.

At some point the short-term bonds will give a greater yield then the long-term bonds.

This is called bond yield inversion.

Supposedly it signals a looming recession.

I will go you one further. The bond yield inversion is not a predictor, but a consequence of fear, inflation, recession, and all bad things that can happen.

In other words, the bond yield inversion is occurring because of fear.

The bond yield inversion is a barometer of fear.

This does not necessarily mean that things are going to get worse, but that things are likely to get worse.

Historically a bond yield inversion has portended a recession.

The point I want to make is that it’s not bond yield inversion that is causing the problem, but fear.

If the Fed recognizes fear as the root cause and acts accordingly, then a recession can be forestalled.

You forestall a recession by raising interest rates.

When the Fed raises interest rates, it tightens money, stems inflation, fleshes out the Ponzi schemers, and forces borrowers to think twice and cut once.

When the Fed raises interest rates, investors turn away from the cowboy atmosphere that is the stock market and move their money into safe investments.

These moves by the Fed, promote growth in the bond market and restore faith in the economy.

As I said before, think of the bond market as a big bank of safety, not glamorous, but secure.

Now, what happens if the Fed doesn’t raise interest rates?

If the Fed becomes scared and views rising interest rates as an enemy instead of the healing salve that it is, then the economy will only grow worse.

Fear will entrench itself, inflation will grow, consumer confidence will drop, purchasing will decrease, and even more money will flow out of the stock market. Stock market prices will drop precipitously thus causing panic.

Complete faith will be lost in the stock market. Fortunes and portfolios will be rubbed out overnight. It will become almost impossible for companies to raise funds through stock securities.

Very quickly the economy will grind to a snail’s pace.

A full-blown depression will ensue.

Of course, this is usually the consequence of years of profligate spending.

These are the wages of sin.

Sincerely,

Archer Crosley

Play the Long Game

July 17, 2022 ~ archercrosley

Don’t be a day trader.

Don’t try to figure out the stock market.

You can’t figure it out.

The only rule that seems to hold true is that the stock market goes up overtime.

If you try to time out the stock market in the short run on any stock or commodity, you run a greater risk of losing.

Forget about options. That’s pure casino gambling.

Don’t try to base your estimate of the stock market on what happens in the news either.

If interest rates go up, that doesn’t necessarily mean that the stock market will go down.

The market may decide that interest rates didn’t go up as much as they thought they would, which is good news to the market.

You can say the same for earnings.

If a company has bad earnings, you would expect the market to go down for that particular stock, however the market might say well, “We see the earnings as better than we thought they would be. We thought the earnings would be far worse. “

The market plays these games all the time.

For that reason, don’t pay attention to what the news says.

Don’t pay any attention to what the analysts say either.

Do your own research.

Look at the income statement and balance sheet yourself.

You should also be investing in stocks that you personally use.

Today, the New York Times was talking about a company called Albemarle which is a big lithium producer.

You would think that this would be a good buy because the stock is off its high to a good degree.

As I was looking at the stock today, I asked myself: What the hell do I know about lithium?

Do I purchase raw lithium?

Do I know anything about the customer service at Albemarle?

Am I a chemist?

Do I work in the energy sector?

Does raw lithium affect my core business?

The answer to all these questions is no. I’m a pediatrician.

For these reasons I have no context to believe in this company in bad times. I’m a babe in the woods.

For that reason I’m going to jettison Albemarle quicker than you say Joseph Priestly.

Now, Albemarle might be a good investment for Kent Masters, the CEO.

But not me.

I’m going to invest in companies I use, know and have confidence in.

But that doesn’t mean I’m going to bet the ranch. I’ll place a sizable chunk but hold at least 1/2 my allotment back in case the stock goes lower.

And when the stock goes lower, I will buy with confidence.

I still won’t bet everything though.

I’ll bet only the allotment I can afford to lose.

The goal is to play for the long run: decades.

You want to be one of those guys who everybody talks about. You want to be one of those guys who buys a stock in the early days.

The goal is to not sell your stock just because it goes up 75% or 100%.

What you want to do is keep that stock for decades so that it splits once, twice, thrice.

Play for the long run.

Pick stocks that you think will be around for 50 to 75 years.

For that reason you have to keep an eye out for stocks that YOU consider blue chips that you like and that you see other people liking.

These stocks have to have a little sex appeal.

Investors like sexy stocks just like they do sexy people.

I don’t get an erection over Albemarle. I might on Apple Computer.

If I buy and hold 2000 shares at $10 ($20,000)and it travels to 2000 shares at $100 ($200,000) then splits 4:1 back to 8000 shares at $25 ($200,000), I’m not going to sell.

I’m not going to sell because I’m going to be very reluctant to put $200,000 back into the market. I will say to myself: Oh no, that’s too much.

But if I leave it in, I won’t be thinking that I’m investing $200,000 because I only put in $20,000 to begin with.

Do you see the difference?

If I leave that $200,000 in play, when that stock rises another four fold, I’ve got myself $800,000.

At that point, I still won’t take it out. I’ll leave it in and wait for another four fold rise for a cool 3.2 million.

That’s how you are going to get wealthy.

The reason why people don’t do this is because they feel obligated to take the money out when the stock makes a little bit of gain. And they don’t wanna put the money back because they think it’s too much money to put back.

Or they get bored. Or they see somebody making a pile of money somewhere else. So they take it out.

Be one of the smarter ones. Buy and hold, and forget all the sexy day trading that will get you nowhere.

In summary, with daytrading you will never be able to time the market. You will never be able to outfigure the market.

Be a winner, not a chump.

Sincerely,

Archer Crosley

Hope After The Crash

July 14, 2022July 13, 2022 ~ archercrosley

To those of you who have lost money in cryptocurrency, here is my advice to you.

Don’t get depressed.

Don’t turn to drugs.

The world is not going to end.

You are young, and you have plenty of time to recover.

You have a lot of years left in you.

Things are never as bad or as good as they seem to be.

Take a few deep breaths and try to learn from this experience.

Write down on a piece of paper the lessons that you have learned.

If you have lost all your money, or a sizable chunk of that money, you now understand that the media always goes to extremes.

The media always looks on the bright side when the market is going good; the media always looks on the dark side when the market is going bad.

That’s why the vast majority of the people lose their money.

The media is often not your friend.

You always have to employ equanimity when evaluating the markets. You have to temper your greed, and you have to temper your fears.

Secondly, never bet more than you can afford to lose.

As a smaller investor, you don’t have access to all the information that is out there. You have no idea what these CEOs and their lieutenants are doing.

They could be robbing the company blind, and you wouldn’t know it.

And, yes, they do lie.

If you are going to bet the ranch on anything in life, bet the ranch on yourself.

Never bet the ranch on somebody else.

Thirdly, nobody can predict the future.

Nobody.

The best thing you can do is avoid all these technical analysts who claim they can predict the future by looking at graphs from the past.

It can’t be done.

It looks like it can be done because they point to events that have already transpired. Then they direct your attention to patterns that preceded major recessions.

They make it look easy.

If it were that easy, everybody would do it, and everybody would be a billionaire.

But everybody isn’t a billionaire.

A better approach is to think about the vehicle that you are investing in, read as much as you can about it, listen to as much as you can about it, and then think about it some more.

Ask a lot of questions along the way.

It’s also helpful for you to invest in stocks and vehicles that you believe in.

In my life, I made a significant amount of money in Apple Computer and Las Vegas Sands. I made that money because I used those products, and I believed in those products.

Currently I have my money invested in Amazon and Bitcoin.

That’s it. Just those two.

I use Amazon. I like Amazon. I will continue to use Amazon.

Amazon makes my life easier. I don’t have to run out to a store and waste hours looking for something that isn’t there.

It is that belief in the company that will sustain me when the fearmongers move into action.

Now, of course, I am not going to be stupid. I’ve only invested a certain portion of my money with Amazon.

I’m going to hold money back because I don’t know where the markets are going. Maybe the markets are going down.

As it turns out, that’s where I believe the markets are going. I believe that the Fed has not been aggressive in taming inflation and that the stock market will drop another 10 to 20% more off its high.

I want to have some money in reserve so I can buy more Amazon when the market falls.

I believe that Amazon is the Sears Roebuck of this century.

Still, I’m not going to be totally stupid. I’m not going to invest every last dime I have in Amazon, because I have no idea what the future will hold.

Just as Sears Roebuck fell, so will Amazon fall someday. Maybe this will happen tomorrow.

Therefore I will temper my greed and buy less than I would like to buy.

The same goes for Bitcoin.

I believe in Bitcoin. I think Bitcoin is a valuable store of value for me.

When Bitcoin falls, I will buy some more, but I am not going to bet the ranch on Bitcoin.

I’m not going to bet the ranch because I have no idea what the government and the whales will do to it.

One more piece of advice, please.

Don’t put too much faith in these CEOs who show up on television.

They’re there for a reason.

They are there too sell their company, not necessarily to look out for your best interest.

There are many examples of hucksters who look impressive and effective on news shows and commercials.

The benchmark for me is Robert Brennan of First Jersey Securities.

When he was pitching his firm, he would show up in front of a helicopter.

He would ask you to grow with him as he flew over the Grand Coulee Dam.

It was a very effective ad.

He looked like a man of action. His company, First Jersey Securities, looked like it had its shit in gear.

Unfortunately, First Jersey Securities was a pump and dump scheme.

Robert Brennan was convicted of securities fraud and was sentenced to nine years in jail.

First Jersey Securities went bankrupt.

Caveat Emptor.

These are the lessons that have taken me a lifetime to learn.

If I had learned these lessons at the age of 20, I would’ve been a wealthy man by now.

I’m doing OK, but I could’ve done a lot better.

I want you to be a wealthy person when you are my age.

Don’t give up. Don’t kill yourself. Don’t descend into drugs and alcohol.

There is hope.

Sincerely,

Archer Crosley

Bonds

September 10, 2021 ~ archercrosley ~ Leave a comment

Stay out of the bond market.

Quite frankly, I never understood the bond market.

I mean I do, but I don’t.

I get confused because of the inverse relationship between the yield of the bond and how much you pay for it.

I’m a straightforward guy. I don’t like thinking in terms of inverses. And I don’t want to have to “figure it out” every time I approach the subject of bonds.

It’s as if understanding the bond market ablates the neurons that are responsible for remembering how it works.

I also don’t understand what the CNBC jerk offs mean when they say that “the bond market took a hit.”

Are they saying that the price of bonds went down, or are they saying that the yield went down?

And whatever does that mean anyway?

What do I do with that information?

If you tell me that the stock market took a hit, I get it. I can go buy the stock cheap.

But the bond market?

I don’t have the time to be deciphering what the fuck they’re talking about.

So I don’t invest in it.

In addition to that how can you get an erection over a bond?

Is that possible? I can get an erection over Apple computer, or Amazon, or a stock.

But a bond?

I have to believe in something in order to invest in it.

How can I possibly believe in a city or a government when I know there’s so much corruption going on?

I can’t and I don’t.

I suspect that bonds are something that you invest in as a last resort.

You don’t really want to invest any money there; you just do it out of default.

Bonds are a consolation prize when you don’t win the hottie.

Stocks are hotties.

Bonds are dogs.

I don’t bet on dogs.

Beyond that, the bond market can be extremely deceptive.

Sometimes the bond market goes up not because anybody believes in the bonds, but because people don’t believe in the stock market.

In that event, massive amounts of money begins to compete for bonds at least until the money decides to flow back.

What does that tell you about the status of bonds?

It tells me that you’re dealing with a consolation prize.

Is that what you want to be stuck with?

On top of that misery, one has to worry about the federal reserve: what they’re going to set the interest rate at, and how much money they’re going to print.

Throw in the usual gobbledygook about short term treasuries versus long-term treasuries, plus LIBOR, and your life becomes infinitely more difficult.

Bonds?

Losers.

Don’t even spend one moment of your time thinking about them.

Let CNBC worry about bonds.

Sincerely,

Archer Crosley

Soothsayers

August 25, 2021 ~ archercrosley ~ Leave a comment

Back in the day, in the 80s, when I started making a little money, I studied those knuckleheads who analyzed the stock market through graphs.

These are the same knuckleheads who exist today. They’ll never go away.

They call themselves technical analysts.

They give you the impression that they have the stock market all figured out.

They point to a pattern like a double landing, give it a crazy name like a double dead cat bounce or something stupid like that and from there predict the impending stock market boom.

I looked at many of these books.

I spent so much time examining these books I gave myself a clot in my left lower calf because I didn’t get out of the chair.

That was a big mistake.

What wasn’t a mistake was that I began asking myself questions.

After I looked at these books, I engineered a simple question: Can anyone see the future accurately?

The answer is no.

Nobody can predict the future.

Nobody ever has predicted the future. They have only gotten lucky from time to time.

These technical analysts look good because they analyze past events. They already know what the future is because it’s already happened.

The other way these guys look good is by spreading their risk.

What do I mean by that?

I’m going to tell you a story to illustrate.

I was born in 1954.

In 1963 John Kennedy was assassinated.

After he was assassinated there were all sorts of people who claimed to have predicted his assassination.

One of these persons was a lady named Jean Dixon who was a very popular horoscope reader at the time.

Well, I was only 10 or 11 years old at the time, and fairly naïve, so I was super impressed with this lady when she said that she had predicted JFK‘s assassination.

I ran up to my dad and said: Dad, this lady predicted JFK‘s assassination. This is absolutely amazing.

I was wondering what special powers she must have had.

My dad who was a curmudgeon of sorts, and a man not likely to humor fools, looked at me and said: It’s easy when you predict everything under the sun.

And there you have it.

How can these forecasters on Wall Street possibly be wrong when they predict everything that can possibly happen?

They can’t.

Which is why they predict everything under the sun.

They have to because no one can predict the future.

That includes you.

The future entails risk, so whenever you invest in the market, you undertake that risk. That’s part of the reality of life. There are no sure things.

Because there are no sure things, because foresight is never 20/20, you must temper your enthusiasm for whatever product you are investing in.

I would never recommend that you bet the ranch on one stock or one investment.

Bet only what you can afford to lose, then forget it. Never look back unless there are some amazing circumstances that you didn’t realize.

But if you do back out, back out forever. And never look back.

Most of all, understand that no one can predict the future.

No one.

Don’t give these technical analysts one minute of your time. You will just be fooling yourself.

Sincerely,

Archer Crosley

The Seductress

August 23, 2021August 23, 2021 ~ archercrosley ~ Leave a comment

The main thing you need to know about the stock market is that it’s rigged.

It’s always been rigged.

It’s always going to be rigged as long as the knuckleheads are in power.

If they had wanted to not rig the stock market, they would’ve done it.

But why would they want to do that?

The casino’s a business.

They not only need a rigged stock market to fleece you of your money, they need it to give reliable profits and gains for their professional money managers at the top brokerage houses.

Doesn’t it seem odd to you that on average year after year these top firms can give clients reliable gains?

Sure, there are downturns, of course.

Sure there are stocks that fail, of course.

On average though, the stock market reliably gives them the gains they need in order to sucker people into participating in their scam.

The big downturn seems to be a necessary thing every now and then.

This is the grand fleecing, the grand evening, which makes the stock market overall a net loser for you.

Why is that?

If the stock market overall is a net winner, why don’t you see these gains also?

You don’t see them because you’re a human being who gets scared. When the crowd starts running because a bear is chasing them, you run also.

It takes strength to hold your ground when you’re about to die.

You aren’t thinking about profits; you are thinking about survival.

So you get out of the stock market.

As you are getting out of the market, the big boys are buying up your stock.

Why are they buying up your stock when the media they control is creating all this fear?

Because they know.

They know things that you don’t know, and they have the resources to get through any downturn.

They also have the resources to gamble.

From time to time though, there are people who think they have the system beat, and the media which the big boys control allow these people to project their advice to the people.

They will tell the people that what goes down must come up.

It sounds logical, except that Isaac Newton didn’t say that; he said the reverse, and he was talking about gravity, not the stock market.

Nevertheless, these market mavens, these know it alls, these supreme wise investors will convince you that what goes down must come up.

This isn’t necessarily so as the investors in the dot-com bubble learned the hard way decades ago.

I remember those days.

I remember those days because at the time I wasn’t in the stock market.

I remember my friends getting fleeced out of their money.

All of it.

Many small investors kept piling more and more money in to the stock market as the experts told them that what goes down must come up.

I remember reading these articles. I remember the stock advice programs reassuring investors of this “maxim”.

While this is true for the big boys, it may not be true for you.

It all depends on how much pain you can take.

The big boys can take that stock down and down and down and down and down.

And they will if they have to.

They don’t care.

They’ll make you bleed so much, you’ll buckle and never want to come back.

They can do it through the media that they control. If the media talks about fear, the people will be fearful.

The people will stampede, and eventually you’ll run with them.

After you’re beaten up and busted, the big boys will buy the stock on the cheap and then bide their time.

They can do it.

They can do it because they are linked in to huge capital markets that will either loan them the money, give them the money, or print them the money.

Who is going to do that for you?

Nobody.

And you won’t be inclined to do so anyway.

Unless of course you understand the racket that goes on in Wall Street.

You may think you can beat the market.

You’re wrong.

The market is a seductress. It draws you in, chews you up, and then spits you out.

It gives you just enough winnings to make you think that you’ve got the system beat, then it yanks the rug out from beneath you.

It’s a temptress.

Come on in, join the party, have a little fun, make a little money.

And so you do.

Life may be a little dull for you, and so you reason, how will a little fun hurt?

Ha ha ha, the market laughs.

Sincerely,

Archer Crosley

Set It and Forget It

August 21, 2021 ~ archercrosley ~ Leave a comment

When you invest in a company, invest no more than you can afford to lose while adopting the set it and forget it theory.

Don’t be a day trader in that stock or company.

Day trading is pure misery, and you won’t win anyway.

You’ll never beat the high frequency traders.

You’ll never beat the big boys.

They know every trick in the book.

You won’t take down Wall Street; Wall Street will take down you.

If you don’t have the guts to invest in a company, don’t invest.

You either believe in the company or you don’t.

Forget about taking a little off the top.

Ignore practicality.

Be a hog.

Have courage and forge ahead.

Beg to be slaughtered.

Now, of course, there are always going to be extenuating circumstances that will make you rethink your position.

If new information comes along that leads you to believe that your investment is in great jeopardy, then leave.

If you leave, don’t go back.

It’s the only way I know of to immunize yourself against day trading.

Here is why day trading and getting in and out of a company doesn’t work. It’s also the same reason why the set it and forget theory does work.

Let’s say that you have $10,000 to invest in a company. You do so, and your value in the company after ten years goes up to $100,000. Suppose that you decide to take your profits at that point in time. You sell, after which the stock drops to $80,000.

You then think about getting in. Are you going to invest $80,000 back into the stock?

No. You are not going to invest $80,000. You are not going to invest $80,000 at all.

You are a human being driven by fear.

You have already gotten your profits, and you don’t want to lose those profits. So what you will do is put in a much smaller amount. You’ll probably invest only $20,000 max.

Suppose that after you re-invest your money, the stock after 10 years goes up 10 times again. What will your profits be then?

If you reinvest $20,000, you will net $180,000 in profits on the second go around.

If you had left your money in and not taken profits, your total net would be $990,000.

That’s a heftier chunk of money than 90,000 plus 180,000 or $270,000.

Leave your money in.

Play the long game.

If you win, you win.

If you lose, you lose.

When you take this approach, you immunize yourself against the hucksters and the scaremongers in the media.

The Wall Street Journal has no power over you.

CNBC has no power over you.

If you win, you win big.

If you lose, what have you really lost?

You would only lose what you could afford to lose which in this case is $10,000, not a life destroying loss.

It’s not like you don’t have other investments, right?

If you don’t, you should. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

But when you do bet, set it and forget it.

Sincerely,

Archer Crosley

Impeachment? Cui Bono?

December 29, 2018 ~ archercrosley ~ Leave a comment

Impeachment is inevitable according to Elizabeth Drew veteran columnist for the New York Times.

Ms. Drew is as old as the hills, and she was a former director of the Council on Foreign Relations. Well, when you are as connected as she was with the “gentlemen” from Corporate America who now rule our country, her opinion must be considered seriously.

Of course, impeachment is not a conviction. Impeachment is a trial.

One must ask first, though, why the real rulers of America, that being Corporate America, would want their boy, Trump, thrown out of office.

He’s doing just fine by them.

Sure, he’s removed a few token troops from Syria in order to fire up his base, but has he made any real dent in America’s war machine?

Has he fired John Bolton?

NIMHO.

He continues to support Israel to the hilt. He continues to wage verbal warfare against Iran.

It sounds to me like he’s just getting going. It sounds to me like he’s getting the war machine ready for the next offensive.

As for James Mattis resigning, if James Mattis resigned it is only because Corporate America wanted him out of there. He wants a job on a boardroom someday, doesn’t he? Well, if he does he better not anger Corporate America. They never forget.

No, I think Mattis was perhaps too reasonable for our corporate warmongers, too much the voice of peace, always a danger to the aspirations of corporate America.

Hey, remember those halcyon days when American leaders cared about peace in the world?

Ha, what a pack of wimps those guys were.

The stock market plunge? Why would Corporate America give one rat’s ass about the stock market? They’ve been manipulating it for years, stealing money from the American people. They don’t care if the market goes down; that just gives them the opportunity to swoop in and buy stocks cheap.

The shutdown over the wall? Corporate America couldn’t care less if a few Americans go without pay for the next month or two. That doesn’t affect them. They rather prefer the fracas and discussion over the wall, a stupid idea if there ever was one.

Indeed, Corporate America loves the wall and the discussion there of. They do so because it distracts Americans from discussing the real cause of immigration from Central America, which is that Corporate America has raped the people of Central America and have been doing so for many, many decades.

Trump is a good thing for the corporate elite. Why would they want to get rid of him and have some wild and crazy guy like Mike Pence get in there?

Mike Pence might do something wise. Mike Pence might have a sensitivity to the American people and feel that war is not in their best interest. Mike Pence might feel the pain of people who’ve lost money in the stock market. He might see it as the casino that it is. Mike Pence might agree with Mr. Obrador in Mexico City who feels that investment in Central America and improving the lives of its inhabitants might prevent immigration into the United States.

Oh the horror, the horror. What would become of the common market and the Amero?

It wouldn’t become, and that is the point. The elites from Corporate America desire to build their new world, and they will have it.

At this point in time, Trump is an integral instrument to achieve that. And so, in this author’s opinion, Trump will be with us for quite some time.

Sure, there might be an impeachment process, but if Corporate America doesn’t want a conviction to take place, it won’t happen.

Corporate America controls the U.S. Senate. Their boys will do what they’re told to do, or they won’t get the money to get reelected.

That’s what I think of Trump’s impeachment.

Cui bono?

www.thejfklie.com

The Stock Market

October 11, 2018 ~ archercrosley ~ Leave a comment

Since the stock market is falling, I thought it would be a good idea to give you some rules in the stock market.

These are some lessons that I have learned over 35 years. I list them not necessarily in order of importance.

Invest in what you use and believe in if you think the price is good. When you use a product, you generally have a better feel for the product’s true value. This comes in handy when stock market gurus tell you to sell the stock. This helped me tremendously in the 80s with Apple computer and in 2008 with Las Vegas Sands.
Stay away from options. It’s gambling pure and simple. Any gains I made in the regular stock market I lost in options. Particularly stay away from put options. When you buy a put option you’re betting on the stock to fail; and no matter how fiercely you try to justify the bet, you’ll feel bad – unless of course you work at Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan in which case you’ll feel happy. People there stamp their feet, sing the Horst Wessel song and scream, “Das tut mir leid.”
Investing in bonds is like dating someone you think is a dog. You’ll trade that dog in the second a sexy stock comes along. So will everyone else; and if they dump their dog before you do, you’re fucked. I never invested in bonds. I never understood them, and I don’t think anyone else does either – which is why they dump them. Plus who wants to rely on the government?
No one can predict the future. Case closed. What you can do is invest in good, undervalued stocks that appreciate.
If you think that cheap stocks can’t go down any further, you are wrong.
They call it a bear market for a reason. If you don’t know why, you’re going to find out.
Just because you use and believe in a stock does not mean that you should hold on to the stock forever. You must be emotionally detached from your stock. Your job is to make wise decisions.
Experts are not experts.
CEOs are not experts. In fact many are active dissemblers of the truth.
I don’t like diversification. I made more money not by diversifying but by carefully researching the balance sheets and income statements of the companies I was investing in. Plus I listened to conference calls when available.
Try to hang onto your winners. Over decades you’ll do well. Resist the temptation to cash out to pay down on other assets.
What goes down must not necessarily come back up. No, Sir, that ball can keep going down and down and …
Not obeying these rules made the stock market a giant waste of time for me economically. I came out even.
It’s s fun game, and you will have multiple opportunities to win and lose. Plus you will learn about the wider economy.
Never think you are somebody or the Market Gods will happily show you where you stand in the grand scope of things.

www.thejfklie.com

The Art of Mumbo Jumbo

October 8, 2018October 8, 2018 ~ archercrosley ~ Leave a comment

Have you ever listened to a business school graduate speak?

Unless you’ve been reverse-engineered like he has been, you can barely understand a word.

That’s right, reverse-engineered.

These business schools specialize in reverse-engineering. They take bright people and make them stupid.

They turn diamonds into lumps of coal.

They do it with stupid juice and plenty of it.

It’s ladled out in pitcher loads.

Their graduates speak in eco-babble.

Now maybe you are thinking this eco-babble is legitimate jargon, but if you thought that you would be wrong.

Yes, other professionals talk in jargon. Doctors do it all the time.

The difference is that doctors aren’t speaking bullshit.

Aortas actually exist.

Economists specialize in bullshit.

And boy do they lay it on thick.

I think they have a man with a machine cranking this BS out faster than a human being can possibly learn it.

They say no two economists can agree. I think that’s wrong. I don’t think even one economist can agree with himself from one minute to the next.

I think he forgets what he says before it comes out of his mouth.

Terms like weak dollar, bubbles, overvalued dollar, trade deficits, domestic savings only exist to intimidate you into accepting his authority.

Phrases like ‘run on the bond market’ sweeten his supremacy.

Throw in short-term treasuries, LIBOR, disparity in bond yields, and you’ve got a genius.

God speaks when he talks about the Fed holding onto government debt.

Hey, genius, the Fed is the government. But we’ll pretend it isn’t.

Of course they all predicted the collapse of 2007.

Sure.

When I was a kid I was totally impressed with this soothsayer Jeanne Dixon who supposedly predicted JFKs assassination.

I asked my dad how this was possible. What special powers did she have?

My dad who could dismiss entire industry’s with a phrase said to me: It’s easy when you predict everything under the sun.