What Will Happen in New York City

What’s going to happen in New York City in the next three weeks? One thing is for sure, somethings going to happen. Something has to happen.

New York City reopened on 6/8/2020, after 78 days of lockdown – the longest in the nation.  They are as of today entering Phase 4 of a very prolonged reopening.

So far, so good.  

Let’s play some thought games.

Suppose New York suffers no surge.

Would Dr. Fauci want us to believe that the citizens of New York City had lowered the R-naught value so as to have successfully extinguished the dreaded coronavirus?  Is it possible that the virus with its low R-naught value in hand can find no one to infect?

Well, do New Yorkers live in a vacuum?

Is there no one traveling into New York City who can transmit the coronavirus?


Are the citizens of New York now immune to the coronavirus? Well, Dr. Fauci and his colleagues have told us that herd immunity was impossible.  They expended much energy over the past three months through their media shills pooh-poohing the idea of herd immunity.

What we do know for sure is that certainly there are citizens of New York City who are immune.  That much we know for sure.

What about the others who were locked up inside their houses?  Well, weren’t they locked up in order to prevent getting infected?

Now, these people are coming out of their houses and are presumably not immune.

So will these people get infected?  They should because Dr. Fauci told us that herd immunity was not possible.

So what will it mean if they don’t get infected?  What will it mean if there are no more deaths?

It can only mean that herd immunity was possible and did develop.  Yet how could that occur if these people were locked up in their houses?

No matter how you slice the tomato, Dr. Fauci would be forced to admit that herd immunity was possible.  Since the lockdown could not possibly contribute to herd immunity, he would be compelled to admit that the lockdown was useless.  If he were compelled to admit that the lockdown was useless he would be forced to conclude that the early reopening in sunbelt states had nothing to do with their surges in the sense that a longer lockdown would have prevented said surge.  

Suppose New York suffers a surge.

If New York suffers a surge, this would suggest that there are plenty of non-immune people in NYC and that herd immunity had not been attained.  It would also suggest that the lockdown accomplished nothing.  It would also suggest that the early reopening in Texas, Florida and California had nothing to do with their surges.

If that is the case, then what caused the surge?  Why would we see a surge 5 to 6 weeks out from the reopening? Why would we not see the surge right away? Seeing the surge five to six weeks out would seem to make no sense unless we postulate that it takes the virus five to six weeks to manifest itself into producing a significant number of deaths.

This seems plausible.

In a sane world, without government collusion and malfeasance, this is precisely what we would expect.

So what will happen?

Any good conspiracy theory should be able to predict the future.  And as you may know, I am a conspiracy theorist who stands proudly with United States Justice Department who has filed charges of conspiracy against regular Americans for over 250 years.

I believe that New York City will suffer a surge beginning somewhere between the last week of July and the first week of August.  I don’t believe that New York City has attained herd immunity.  I believe that there are plenty of people in New York City who are susceptible. I don’t care what the R-naught value is.  Susceptible people are susceptible people. If the virus is there, it will find them.  By locking people down we only created millions of coronavirus virgins who will be available to be infected again.

This resurgence will be enough to scare New York leaders to close the schools indefinitely.  And this is precisely what the people of Corporate America and our government desire.  The people of Corporate America working with the federal government desire to fundamentally transform American society. They cannot do that if New York proves to be a success story.  

If New York is shown to be a success story for “fixing” the coronavirus crisis, then other states only need to re-lock down to solve the problem.  Since the sunbelt states have lower death counts anyway, they should be able to accomplish this within a month or two; and, as a result, the nation will lick the coronavirus.

This is not what Corporate America and the federal government desire.

What Corporate America and the federal government want to achieve is a complete economic catastrophe in the United States so that they can utterly transform the country. They cannot do that without New York and New Jersey. They need to have these states on board.  

Ergo, you will see a surge in NYC.

Its leaders and the canary, who governs the state of New York, will panic. They will institute another non-productive lockdown.

Let’s talk about the R-naught value.

Is the R-naught value a  property of the virus or of society and its response to the virus?


The virus is the virus.  The virus does not obey the rulebook. The virus cannot read.  If there are sufficiently susceptible people in the population, the virus will attack those people.

If I have 8 million people in New York City and lock 6 million of them up, I only have a functional population of 2 million people. Yes, I can lower the R-naught value, but that value lowers only because I have rendered 6 million functionally (but not physically) immune by locking them up. Once I release these 6 million people from captivity, the R-naught value should go up.

Now, as stated before, New York City does not exist in a bubble. It is not separate from the United States of America.  There are people constantly moving in and out of the city.  As New York opens up, that influx will only increase.

The question remains, how many people in New York City are immune?  According to Dr. Fauci, herd immunity is impossible.  And it is impossible if you lock people up.  

So, with that stated, let’s play a game for the purpose of trying to figure out the future.

In this game we will permit Dr. Fauci to be God.  And Dr. Fauci may choose between “surge” or  “no surge” in New York.

A choice of surge suggests that the lockdown was useless; a choice of  “no surge” suggests that herd immunity was possible.  He can’t have his cake and eat it too. He can therefore either choose between the lockdown being useless, or herd immunity being possible.  

Which will it be?

I think he will choose the former and accept the surge – because he and his colluders need the surge.  What he’ll say is that the lockdown wasn’t strong enough.  He’ll argue for an ever longer lockdown.

If he chooses the latter and denies the surge, why then others will follow suit, lock down for two months and lick the coronavirus crisis a la NYC.  That option Dr. Fauci and his colluders can not permit.  That will throughly discredit them as fools for having stated that herd immunity was not possible.  Plus, the crisis will have ended, small business will survive, and the lack of stimulus to justify their transforming of society will vanish.  Furthermore, there will be no need for the development of a vaccine because herd immunity will have developed.

Thank you.



Archer Crosley, MD

Copyright 2020   Archer Crosley   All Rights Reserved


PS. I think that we have not seen a surge in NYC to date because of NYC’s extremely slow reopening.



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