CNBC and the Casino

August 14, 2022August 13, 2022 ~ archercrosley

I have some financial advice for you if you are young.

Take the advice you see on CNBC with a grain of salt.

I suppose it’s OK for you to watch it for entertainment purposes.

I understand. Sometimes we are just so bored we have to listen to something.

The problem with CNBC is several fold.

Number one it gets you into the mindset of constantly buying and selling stocks.

Buy low, sell high, Jim Cramer will tell you. Pigs get greedy, hogs get slaughtered, or something to that effect.

I used to be of that mindset, and I didn’t make a dime.

I think it’s far better to choose a stock that you use, that you believe in, and hold that stock for eternity.

Forget about trying to time the market. That cannot be done.

There may be several stocks that you believe in, that you use. It’s okay to invest in those stocks.

But to be getting involved in the million and one stocks that are promoted on CNBC is a mistake.

It’s not possible for you to know all those stocks. There isn’t the time of day.

Hucksters abound and speak cleverly. It takes time to ferret these people out.

Investing in a few stocks that you know well, that you have taken the time to research is much better than being a jack of all trades at all of them.

Number two, CNBC invites you into the casino.

It gets you into the mentality of gambling.

Don’t be a gambler; be an intelligent investor who researches his stocks.

The problem with walking into the casino, is that you gradually get lured into one of the biggest scams of all: options.

This is akin to stepping over the threshold of Dracula’s castle. Once you step over the threshold, he owns you.

Stay out of the options market. You cannot win that game over the long run.

If you believe in the stock, own the stock; If you don’t believe in stock, stay away from the stock.

Betting on the month-to-month movements of a stock is a fool’s game.

Do not buy put options. Likewise, do not sell short on a stock. You will lose your shirt.

Besides that, when you buy put options or sell short, you are betting on someone to lose. I don’t care how you justify it, you are betting on someone to lose.

It’s not a morally defensible position.

This is important because we live in a moral universe.

Number three, CNBC, its hosts, its principal guests are mostly members of the empire.

They wholeheartedly support the rigged casino that is the stock market.

CNBC contributors can huff and puff, they can stomp around the room; the stock market is rigged.

The ups and downs of the market are moved by the elites and the whales.

You are a minnow. You are not going to move markets.

Even if you get together with like-minded people on Robinhood, the power elite will still stop you.

You cannot win the game on the day-to-day movements of the stock market.

Number four, CNBC lulls you into thinking that it is the news that drives the markets.

They will constantly talk about various government reports and the market’s response to that. They will show you the Dow futures moving up or down in response to the god-almighty jobs report. The obvious conclusion then is that the news drives the market.

No, the news does not ultimately drive the market. On the contrary, the news is used as a justification for why the markets move up and down.

One day the CPI is used to justify the rising market. The next day, on a down day, the same CPI is not used at all.

It is the elites who use the news to justify the movements that they choose. Bad news does not always lead to a market going down because the elites can say, “Well, the news wasn’t as bad as we thought it was going to be.” The same trick can be used for good news but in reverse.

The market is rigged.

It’s rigged so that the brokerage houses can more or less reliably put out a return on investment for their clients.

It’s called managed finance. That’s my term.

Number five, CNBC confers pseudo-expertise on young hotshots who claim special clairvoyance about the markets.

Nobody can predict the future.

These glib hucksters barely out of their 30s talk a good game. They use a lot of numbers. They use a lot of jargon also. I think they have a guy standing behind the curtain who is cranking out new jargon on a jargon machine.

Their slick delivery will convince you that they are smart and you are not.

Stay away from them.

Better yet, stay away from CNBC.

CNBC?

They are the carnival barkers for the casino. They stand outside and say: “Hey, come on in. Join the party. Have a drink.”

It’s quite enticing.

Years ago, on my first trip to Las Vegas, a taxi driver pointed toward the gleaming casinos in the distance and said to me: “Those casinos weren’t built on winners.”

I know what you’re thinking. You’re thinking: “I’m young, I’m smart, I’m hot, I’m the master of the universe, I’ve got this game beat.”

No, you don’t.

In a casino, the house always wins.

Sincerely,

Archer Crosley

Why Are Wars Fought?

November 13, 2021 ~ archercrosley ~ Leave a comment

Why are wars fought?

Don’t be a sucker like I was. I was the most naïve person who ever lived. I believed in social justice. I still do.

But as I say, I was a sucker.

I believed that wars were fought for social justice.

Are wars fought for social justice?

This is the conventional wisdom pervading mainstream media. It exists to delude you into thinking that somebody out there cares.

Let me disabuse you of this notion. Wars are not fought for social justice.

It’s pretty safe to say that no war has ever been fought for social justice.

That includes our Civil War.

Humanity is not noble.

Let me make my case to you so that you can see that what I say is so.

Let’s say that you are leading a massive group of people who want to free the Uighurs in China.

Let’s say that you have 40 million people behind you. I’ll tell you what, let’s sweeten the pot to 300 million people.

What are you going to do to get that war prosecuted?

Well, you would probably lobby the government and its officials. They may even agree with you.

What’s the next step?

Sooner or later, someone’s going to have to ask: What do we stand to gain out of this war?

What’s the point of the war?

The big dweebs in finance will weigh in.

Somebody in New York City is going to be consulted and they are going to want to know what profit it is to the banks who may be loaning money.

What do we stand to gain? What do we stand to lose?

Wars cost money.

You may respond: We will free the Uighurs from injustice.

Do you know how the bankers will respond?

They will laugh in your face. They want to know what profits will accrue to the corporations that are fighting the war. They want to know if we are going to win.

Banks don’t bet on losing propositions.

Big banks bet on winners.

Bankers couldn’t care less about social justice. They care about profits.

This is the reality of humanity.

And it is the bankers and the big corporations that make the decisions to go to war. Regular people don’t make those decisions.

Once you understand this, world events will make sense to you. You will get rid of this idea of events arising from the need to achieve social justice. You will disabuse yourself of the social view of history.

Stay away from the social view of history.

The social view of history says that humanity and civilizations change because of social movements.

The social view history interprets world events in terms of people, their ethnicities, their race, their beliefs.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

You will always be confused about world events if you try to interpret world events in terms of social movements.

You will never be confused about world events if you interpret events in terms of money and profits.

We human beings don’t like to admit that.

We prefer to live behind a façade of nobility.

We are not noble.

We fight wars for money.

We are no different than those tribes that emerged from the woods thousands upon thousands of years ago.

Big movements that pretend to care about social justice are in reality financed by corporations who have a hidden economic agenda.

Movements cost money.

Hitler’s movement in Nazi Germany cost big bucks. It takes a lot of money to pay for uniforms, rallies, officers and organizational efforts.

Hitler’s movement was funded by Wall Street and its German corporate collaborators.

Black Lives Matter is funded by Corporate America.

That’s reality.

Don’t be a sucker like I was.

Sincerely,

Archer Crosley

Bonds

September 10, 2021 ~ archercrosley ~ Leave a comment

Stay out of the bond market.

Quite frankly, I never understood the bond market.

I mean I do, but I don’t.

I get confused because of the inverse relationship between the yield of the bond and how much you pay for it.

I’m a straightforward guy. I don’t like thinking in terms of inverses. And I don’t want to have to “figure it out” every time I approach the subject of bonds.

It’s as if understanding the bond market ablates the neurons that are responsible for remembering how it works.

I also don’t understand what the CNBC jerk offs mean when they say that “the bond market took a hit.”

Are they saying that the price of bonds went down, or are they saying that the yield went down?

And whatever does that mean anyway?

What do I do with that information?

If you tell me that the stock market took a hit, I get it. I can go buy the stock cheap.

But the bond market?

I don’t have the time to be deciphering what the fuck they’re talking about.

So I don’t invest in it.

In addition to that how can you get an erection over a bond?

Is that possible? I can get an erection over Apple computer, or Amazon, or a stock.

But a bond?

I have to believe in something in order to invest in it.

How can I possibly believe in a city or a government when I know there’s so much corruption going on?

I can’t and I don’t.

I suspect that bonds are something that you invest in as a last resort.

You don’t really want to invest any money there; you just do it out of default.

Bonds are a consolation prize when you don’t win the hottie.

Stocks are hotties.

Bonds are dogs.

I don’t bet on dogs.

Beyond that, the bond market can be extremely deceptive.

Sometimes the bond market goes up not because anybody believes in the bonds, but because people don’t believe in the stock market.

In that event, massive amounts of money begins to compete for bonds at least until the money decides to flow back.

What does that tell you about the status of bonds?

It tells me that you’re dealing with a consolation prize.

Is that what you want to be stuck with?

On top of that misery, one has to worry about the federal reserve: what they’re going to set the interest rate at, and how much money they’re going to print.

Throw in the usual gobbledygook about short term treasuries versus long-term treasuries, plus LIBOR, and your life becomes infinitely more difficult.

Bonds?

Losers.

Don’t even spend one moment of your time thinking about them.

Let CNBC worry about bonds.

Sincerely,

Archer Crosley

Soothsayers

August 25, 2021 ~ archercrosley ~ Leave a comment

Back in the day, in the 80s, when I started making a little money, I studied those knuckleheads who analyzed the stock market through graphs.

These are the same knuckleheads who exist today. They’ll never go away.

They call themselves technical analysts.

They give you the impression that they have the stock market all figured out.

They point to a pattern like a double landing, give it a crazy name like a double dead cat bounce or something stupid like that and from there predict the impending stock market boom.

I looked at many of these books.

I spent so much time examining these books I gave myself a clot in my left lower calf because I didn’t get out of the chair.

That was a big mistake.

What wasn’t a mistake was that I began asking myself questions.

After I looked at these books, I engineered a simple question: Can anyone see the future accurately?

The answer is no.

Nobody can predict the future.

Nobody ever has predicted the future. They have only gotten lucky from time to time.

These technical analysts look good because they analyze past events. They already know what the future is because it’s already happened.

The other way these guys look good is by spreading their risk.

What do I mean by that?

I’m going to tell you a story to illustrate.

I was born in 1954.

In 1963 John Kennedy was assassinated.

After he was assassinated there were all sorts of people who claimed to have predicted his assassination.

One of these persons was a lady named Jean Dixon who was a very popular horoscope reader at the time.

Well, I was only 10 or 11 years old at the time, and fairly naïve, so I was super impressed with this lady when she said that she had predicted JFK‘s assassination.

I ran up to my dad and said: Dad, this lady predicted JFK‘s assassination. This is absolutely amazing.

I was wondering what special powers she must have had.

My dad who was a curmudgeon of sorts, and a man not likely to humor fools, looked at me and said: It’s easy when you predict everything under the sun.

And there you have it.

How can these forecasters on Wall Street possibly be wrong when they predict everything that can possibly happen?

They can’t.

Which is why they predict everything under the sun.

They have to because no one can predict the future.

That includes you.

The future entails risk, so whenever you invest in the market, you undertake that risk. That’s part of the reality of life. There are no sure things.

Because there are no sure things, because foresight is never 20/20, you must temper your enthusiasm for whatever product you are investing in.

I would never recommend that you bet the ranch on one stock or one investment.

Bet only what you can afford to lose, then forget it. Never look back unless there are some amazing circumstances that you didn’t realize.

But if you do back out, back out forever. And never look back.

Most of all, understand that no one can predict the future.

No one.

Don’t give these technical analysts one minute of your time. You will just be fooling yourself.

Sincerely,

Archer Crosley

The Seductress

August 23, 2021August 23, 2021 ~ archercrosley ~ Leave a comment

The main thing you need to know about the stock market is that it’s rigged.

It’s always been rigged.

It’s always going to be rigged as long as the knuckleheads are in power.

If they had wanted to not rig the stock market, they would’ve done it.

But why would they want to do that?

The casino’s a business.

They not only need a rigged stock market to fleece you of your money, they need it to give reliable profits and gains for their professional money managers at the top brokerage houses.

Doesn’t it seem odd to you that on average year after year these top firms can give clients reliable gains?

Sure, there are downturns, of course.

Sure there are stocks that fail, of course.

On average though, the stock market reliably gives them the gains they need in order to sucker people into participating in their scam.

The big downturn seems to be a necessary thing every now and then.

This is the grand fleecing, the grand evening, which makes the stock market overall a net loser for you.

Why is that?

If the stock market overall is a net winner, why don’t you see these gains also?

You don’t see them because you’re a human being who gets scared. When the crowd starts running because a bear is chasing them, you run also.

It takes strength to hold your ground when you’re about to die.

You aren’t thinking about profits; you are thinking about survival.

So you get out of the stock market.

As you are getting out of the market, the big boys are buying up your stock.

Why are they buying up your stock when the media they control is creating all this fear?

Because they know.

They know things that you don’t know, and they have the resources to get through any downturn.

They also have the resources to gamble.

From time to time though, there are people who think they have the system beat, and the media which the big boys control allow these people to project their advice to the people.

They will tell the people that what goes down must come up.

It sounds logical, except that Isaac Newton didn’t say that; he said the reverse, and he was talking about gravity, not the stock market.

Nevertheless, these market mavens, these know it alls, these supreme wise investors will convince you that what goes down must come up.

This isn’t necessarily so as the investors in the dot-com bubble learned the hard way decades ago.

I remember those days.

I remember those days because at the time I wasn’t in the stock market.

I remember my friends getting fleeced out of their money.

All of it.

Many small investors kept piling more and more money in to the stock market as the experts told them that what goes down must come up.

I remember reading these articles. I remember the stock advice programs reassuring investors of this “maxim”.

While this is true for the big boys, it may not be true for you.

It all depends on how much pain you can take.

The big boys can take that stock down and down and down and down and down.

And they will if they have to.

They don’t care.

They’ll make you bleed so much, you’ll buckle and never want to come back.

They can do it through the media that they control. If the media talks about fear, the people will be fearful.

The people will stampede, and eventually you’ll run with them.

After you’re beaten up and busted, the big boys will buy the stock on the cheap and then bide their time.

They can do it.

They can do it because they are linked in to huge capital markets that will either loan them the money, give them the money, or print them the money.

Who is going to do that for you?

Nobody.

And you won’t be inclined to do so anyway.

Unless of course you understand the racket that goes on in Wall Street.

You may think you can beat the market.

You’re wrong.

The market is a seductress. It draws you in, chews you up, and then spits you out.

It gives you just enough winnings to make you think that you’ve got the system beat, then it yanks the rug out from beneath you.

It’s a temptress.

Come on in, join the party, have a little fun, make a little money.

And so you do.

Life may be a little dull for you, and so you reason, how will a little fun hurt?

Ha ha ha, the market laughs.

Sincerely,

Archer Crosley

Set It and Forget It

August 21, 2021 ~ archercrosley ~ Leave a comment

When you invest in a company, invest no more than you can afford to lose while adopting the set it and forget it theory.

Don’t be a day trader in that stock or company.

Day trading is pure misery, and you won’t win anyway.

You’ll never beat the high frequency traders.

You’ll never beat the big boys.

They know every trick in the book.

You won’t take down Wall Street; Wall Street will take down you.

If you don’t have the guts to invest in a company, don’t invest.

You either believe in the company or you don’t.

Forget about taking a little off the top.

Ignore practicality.

Be a hog.

Have courage and forge ahead.

Beg to be slaughtered.

Now, of course, there are always going to be extenuating circumstances that will make you rethink your position.

If new information comes along that leads you to believe that your investment is in great jeopardy, then leave.

If you leave, don’t go back.

It’s the only way I know of to immunize yourself against day trading.

Here is why day trading and getting in and out of a company doesn’t work. It’s also the same reason why the set it and forget theory does work.

Let’s say that you have $10,000 to invest in a company. You do so, and your value in the company after ten years goes up to $100,000. Suppose that you decide to take your profits at that point in time. You sell, after which the stock drops to $80,000.

You then think about getting in. Are you going to invest $80,000 back into the stock?

No. You are not going to invest $80,000. You are not going to invest $80,000 at all.

You are a human being driven by fear.

You have already gotten your profits, and you don’t want to lose those profits. So what you will do is put in a much smaller amount. You’ll probably invest only $20,000 max.

Suppose that after you re-invest your money, the stock after 10 years goes up 10 times again. What will your profits be then?

If you reinvest $20,000, you will net $180,000 in profits on the second go around.

If you had left your money in and not taken profits, your total net would be $990,000.

That’s a heftier chunk of money than 90,000 plus 180,000 or $270,000.

Leave your money in.

Play the long game.

If you win, you win.

If you lose, you lose.

When you take this approach, you immunize yourself against the hucksters and the scaremongers in the media.

The Wall Street Journal has no power over you.

CNBC has no power over you.

If you win, you win big.

If you lose, what have you really lost?

You would only lose what you could afford to lose which in this case is $10,000, not a life destroying loss.

It’s not like you don’t have other investments, right?

If you don’t, you should. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

But when you do bet, set it and forget it.

Sincerely,

Archer Crosley

The Real Game of Thrones

January 29, 2021January 29, 2021 ~ archercrosley ~ Leave a comment

Alexis Ohanian says that we are now living in a new world with regard to the stock market.

Alexis Ohanian is a founder of Reddit.

He is obviously pleased that his Redditors have made life miserable for the Wall Street elites.

So am I.

He thinks that this is the beginning of a revolution in Wall Street.

He is wrong.

The king never loses when you play the king’s game. This is only a temporary setback for the elites.

The elites will quickly figure out a solution to this problem. They have more money, and they have more political power. If they have to, they will kill their enemies – the Redditors.

Literally.

Like Bill the Butcher, from Gangs of New York, they will festoon their bedchambers with the guts of Alexis Ohanian.

They will never forget this attack. They will destroy Reddit and then Alexis Ohanian.

Julian Assange thought he could beat them.

He didn’t.

Edward Snowden thought he could beat them.

He didn’t.

If Alexis Ohanian is to prevail, he must be vicious and complete. He must not compromise. He must launch an all out onslaught now.

The elites, the criminal cartel, will be vicious.

This is the way the elites work. They are the elites because they are willing to kill.

Our elites are vicious animals.

Unfortunately, this is the way humanity is.

There is no nobility to humanity.

And there never was.

Prior to World War I, the Germans were beating the pants off the British economically. To forestall that, the British declared war on Germany, and the rest is history. It was the British who provoked and instigated World War I. It will be no different with GameStop.

The elites will pull every dirty trick in the book to win.

Like the elitist British pigs who inhabited the City of London in the early 1900s, our elites don’t believe in honest competition.

If they have to, the elites will infiltrate massive amounts of cyber-people into the Redditor community In order to control them.

They will send in their natural leader types to lead the innocent Redditors astray.

They will use the CIA to disseminate disinformation.

They will use their massive computer programs, their quants, and the immoral motherfuckers at MIT to cheat the system.

No one’s going to take away their cash cow without a fight.

No one is going to fuck with their money.

No, there is a better and simpler way to beat Wall Street. Walk away from their rigged casino. That will freak them out. If everybody walked away from their con job, their stock market would plunge into the abyss.

This is how Christianity defeated the Roman empire.

What freaked the Romans out was this group of people that didn’t care about making a pile of money.

Unfortunately the Redditors do care about making money, and the elites will use that weakness to destroy them

That’s the way it works.

Ha ha, Alexis Ohanian, I chortle in your esophagus.

Sincerely,

Archer Crosley