Economics

This appeared in the New York Times today.

“While higher interest rates, slower growth and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses,” Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, said during a speech at the Kansas City Fed’s annual conference in Wyoming. “These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain.”

Contrary to this statement, I do not believe that slower growth will bring down inflation. Nor do I believe that increased growth will cause inflation.

The effect of growth on inflation is neutral.

What is the inflation index? It is the amount of bioavailable money divided by the number of bioavailable humans while understanding that an increase in “stuff” increases the bioavailability of humanity.

An increase in economic activity increases both bioavailable money and bioavailable humans. Likewise a decrease in economic activity decreases both bioavailable money and bioavailable humans. Thus, productivity has no effect on inflation.

None.

The government’s belief that slower growth will bring down inflation is false.

Moreover, its promotion of such is a deception.

It is a clever deception to distract you from the truth which is that an increase in the bioavailable money supply causes inflation.

The inflation that we have was caused by the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury.

Simply put, they printed up too much money.

The proper solution is to decrease the bioavailable money supply, thus the necessity to increase interest rates.

Raising interest rates will control inflation.

In our case the Fed should be more aggressive.

Unfortunately for us, the Fed fiddles while Rome burns.

If the Fed were serious it would speak with actions instead of words.

Instead, Jerome Powell issues warnings.

Hey, man, don’t tell me, show me.

Show me the beef!

If you think inflation is that big a problem, and it is, get off your ass and raise the interest rates immediately.

As George Wallace once said about Vietnam – another calamity courtesy of our elites: “We’re pussyfootin’ around in Vietnam.”

We’re pussyfootin’ around here as well.

The big story people will be talking about for a long time now will be the lack of aggressiveness of the Fed in controlling inflation in 2022.

The Fed apparently is going slow because of fear in plunging the economy into recession.

They needn’t fear that.

America can easily handle a prime rate of 8 to 9% – well above what we have now.

It can handle it because it has handled it.

By going slow in controlling inflation, with its measly 0.75% increases in Federal Funds rate, the Fed is slowly bleeding America to death.

Inflation will continue to be high, yet jobs will slowly dwindle away.

The Fed, paralyzed by a false theory that increased productivity will cause more inflation, will refuse to raise interest rates in a much more dramatic level.

Look for fifteen years of unnecessary pain.

A lot of people are going to be hurting.

It need not be that way.

Unfortunately, we live in the modern age where the permissive parent is afraid to spank the child lest the insecure parent lose their child’s love. In this case, the Fed is the parent, and the child is Corporate America which has been feasting on easy money.

What is needed here is bold action.

Junior needs a spanking.

A strong increase in interest rates will rapidly shrink up the money supply.

Inflation will fall under control, and with it consumer confidence will restore.

Yes, of course, growth will rapidly fall off, but the pain will be much shorter in duration than the pain the Fed is now leading us into.

Copyright 2022 Archer Crosley All Rights Reserved

The Art of Mumbo Jumbo

Have you ever listened to a business school graduate speak?

Unless you’ve been reverse-engineered like he has been, you can barely understand a word.

That’s right, reverse-engineered.

These business schools specialize in reverse-engineering. They take bright people and make them stupid.

They turn diamonds into lumps of coal.

They do it with stupid juice and plenty of it.

It’s ladled out in pitcher loads.

Their graduates speak in eco-babble.

Now maybe you are thinking this eco-babble is legitimate jargon, but if you thought that you would be wrong.

Yes, other professionals talk in jargon. Doctors do it all the time.

The difference is that doctors aren’t speaking bullshit.

Aortas actually exist.

Economists specialize in bullshit.

And boy do they lay it on thick.

I think they have a man with a  machine cranking this BS out faster than a human being  can possibly learn it.

They say no two economists can agree. I think that’s wrong.  I don’t think even one economist can agree with himself from one minute to the next.

I think he forgets what he says before it comes out of his mouth.

Terms like weak dollar, bubbles, overvalued dollar, trade deficits, domestic savings only exist to intimidate you into accepting his authority.

Phrases like ‘run on the bond market’ sweeten his supremacy.  

Throw in short-term treasuries, LIBOR, disparity in bond yields, and you’ve got a genius.

God speaks when he talks about the Fed holding onto government debt.

Hey, genius, the Fed is the government.  But we’ll pretend it isn’t.

Of course they all predicted the collapse of 2007.

Sure.

When I was a kid I was totally impressed with this soothsayer Jeanne Dixon who supposedly predicted JFKs assassination.

I asked my dad how this was possible.  What special powers did she have?

My dad who could dismiss entire industry’s with a phrase said to me: It’s easy when you predict everything under the sun.

The Big Bogus

The size of the national debt is a bogus issue.

It was a bogus issue in the 1980s; it’s a bogus issue today.

The elites love to talk about the size of the national debt in order to make you uneasy.  

The uneasier you are, the weaker you are, the better it is for them.

They constantly talk about the national debt.

They place large scrolling signs in the bigger cities that regularly update the national debt to the public.

Stop listening to them.

The national debt is not the same as your debt.

It’s not the same because the federal government can print new money; you can’t.

If you owe $100,000 on your house, you can’t print up $100,000 to pay it off.

The federal government can, and it does.

Moreover it doesn’t even care about piling up debt because the debt is not there to be paid off.

Let me explain.

Let’s say that the national debt is five billion dollars.  How do you make that insignificant? You do so by printing up five trillion dollars.  

Now let’s move forward. How do you make five trillion dollars seem insignificant? You do so by printing up five quadrillion dollars.

You can play this game in perpetuity.  As you can see, the national debt never gets paid off. That’s the whole point. It’s a scheme that avoids that pain.

There is nothing inherently wrong in borrowing money.  What counts in the national debt is what you are spending the money on and who gets it.

If you are spending the money on a bender in Las Vegas, that is a poor investment.

On the other hand, if you are spending the money on education, that is a good investment.

Who gets the money?

Does the money go to wealthy elites as it did in 2008?

Or does it go to regular people in paying off their mortgages as it should have done in 2008, but, of course, did not.

When we invest in war abroad, that is a poor investment in money. It is so because the elites skim an inordinate amount off the top for themselves. Also, at the end of the war all you are left with is a pile of rusted metal junk. Plus many lives have been lost.

When we invest in education and healthcare domestically in a decentralized manner which allows individual citizens to choose their healthcare or education, that is a wise  investment of money.   It is so because it prevents elites from skimming too much money off the top.  Also, at the end of the day we have healthier, smarter people – always a matter of concern to the elites.

So when the media speaks about the national debt, don’t get freaked out. Ask yourself what are we investing in and who is getting the money.

When you do that, you will be smarter than your average bear.

 

 

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