What we are currently playing a dangerous game here in Hidalgo County, Texas. We are gambling our future on a notion – that the reason we are having a surge is because we didn’t lock down enough.
This notion is based upon the experience of one state – New York.
People are looking at New York and asking: Why are they not having a surge?
They are concluding that New York is not having a surge because they locked down appropriately. The state of New York was on lockdown for 78 days beginning on March 21 and ending on June 7. They began Phase 4 in part of a very protracted reopening yesterday.
The feeling here is that Governor Abbott opened too soon.
Obviously we weren’t woke enough.
I’m not sure about that.
If people are going to conclude that we here in Hidalgo County opened too soon, then they must explain why a protracted lockdown in New York is currently successful. Maybe it’s too soon to tell if New York is successful. Maybe New York has not opened up sufficiently to see true results.
If New York proves to be successful, why will it be successful? After all, Dr. Fauci told us that herd immunity was not possible. Presumably someone someday with the coronavirus will enter New York City. What then?
I suspect you will see a resurgence in NYC. I can not see how you can not have a resurgence.
The thinking on the pro-lockdown side, I assume, is that New York lowered the R-naught value to the point that the virus can not infect anyone.
The R-naught value lowers when an infected person infects a lesser amount of new, previously uninfected people.
Since we did not and still do not have reliable wide-scale testing which tests everybody, we can only infer that the virus has infected less new people because the death count has gone down and the number of hospital admissions have gone down in New York.
Thus people conclude that the R-naught value has gone down. This is important because both Bill Gates and Anthony Fauci point to the R-naught value as the Holy Grail in beating the coronavirus.
Lower the R-naught value and you lick the disease.
What they fail to consider is that in your usual pandemic, uninfluenced by governments and social engineers with crazed theories in hand, the R-naught value goes down because people have become immune.
The immune people begin to outnumber the non-immune people.
Yet in the state of New York, many people, the majority, have not become immune; they have only been locked up and put away in a closet.
Some day they must come out of that closet.
What then will happen?
Will we see a surge in New York? I think so, and I don’t think the government will be able to cover it up. New Yorkers are not known for their passivity.
What will the government say then?
I think the government will tell New Yorkers that they weren’t sufficiently pure in their thinking. This is generally the hallmark of a communist, politically correct, woke government.
The government will then call for an even more stringent lockdown.
That one won’t work either.
Archer Crosley, MD
Copyright 2020 Archer Crosley All Rights Reserved
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