Questions for Settled Science

Have you heard that COVID-19 cases are increasing in the Midwest?

According to God:

“Everyone who knew anything about infectious disease and epidemiology predicted this six to eight months ago,” said Dr, Ezekiel Emanuel, vice-provost for global initiatives at the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania.

It’s always good to get a quote from God.  Here is another.

“Yes, it will surge in the fall, and the reason it will surge is because we are moving indoors,” said Emanuel. “Our surge is much higher than the surges in general,” he said, because the US has started, “from a higher baseline”.

Let’s ask a few questions of God.

Why would cases surge because we are moving indoors? Are we moving indoors any more in early winter than we are in the summer? Do we sleep outdoors in the summer?  Do we not go to work indoors during the summer? Haven’t children been indoors doing remote learning for the past three months?  Haven’t people in the upper Midwest acclimated to the cold by now to the point where they don’t let the cold interfere with their outdoor activities?  Are there no outdoor sports in the upper Midwest? Are we inviting street people into our house just because it’s getting cold?

It seems very unlikely that moving indoors would have a significant impact on the incidence of coronavirus cases.

Have there been any major holidays within the past month where people would be getting together to spread the disease?

No.

Now, if you told me that the cause of the recent surge was depression of individual immunity because of the cold weather, I might be able to buy into an increased incidence of cases and deaths.

But why would this surge be occurring so rapidly?

What has changed in the upper Midwest to cause the disease to spike like this?  Shouldn’t the disease follow a logarithmic progression again? If you remember, back in March it took a while before the caseload and death count got to a high number.  

Have there been any major holidays necessitating major get-togethers or super-spreader events?

No.

So what’s my point?

Just this.

Suppose that the virus has spread throughout the entire community of the upper Midwest, and everybody else in America, by now. Suppose the virus is now colonized in everybody’s respiratory epithelium.

Suppose the spread of the virus is no longer a factor in who gets the disease.

Suppose that the incidence of new disease and new deaths is now dependent upon either how cold the weather is, or how much sunlight people are receiving.

Does this sound crazy?

It didn’t sound crazy to Edgar Hope-Simpson of the UK who studied the influenza virus his entire life.

Hope-Simpson developed a different theory for influenza virus contagiousness.

He had the audacity to question settled science.

In a nutshell he proposed that the lower elevation of the sun in winter, and the decreased production of vitamin D, caused enough decreased immunity to enable the influenza virus to take hold in many people almost simultaneously.

Well, assuming his theory is correct so that I can move this discussion along, suppose the same thing is happening with COVID-19.

Is it possible that this virus has already spread to everyone in the United States by now?

Despite the lockdown, despite the social distancing, it seems very possible.

In fact, it would seem almost impossible that it had not spread to everyone by now.  

Given the truth that the experts have told us, that people in the Midwest were irresponsible for not locking down, we should be able to reasonably calculate how many potential people could be infected.

If we assume that one person may infect 2 new people every 7 days, and that 210 days has passed since the virus hit our shores, we would arrive at a calculation of over one billion people.  That is 2 to the 30th power (30 incubation periods).  Of course, this calculation is not precise; it exists to support the possibility of the virus having spread widely by now.

If this is the case, then shouldn’t everyone be positive for antibodies?

Maybe not. Maybe the coronavirus rests within the surface of the respiratory epithelium in an unknown way and becomes dormant awaiting for a reawakening by the cool weather.

If the coronavirus is resting within the surface of the respiratory epithelium in a special, unknown sort of way, perhaps it would not produce antibodies that would be detectable.

If this were the case, then social distancing measures and the face mask would be unnecessary.

This theory would explain why we are currently having a surge, but it would not explain why we had a surge in many states in June.

Oh, well, here is where we must briefly delve into conspiracy theory, which wouldn’t be necessary if we had an honest government.  

Alas, we do not, and so we must postulate that the surge was helped along and induced by the powers that be.  

Perhaps the same immoral people that developed this bio-weapon are the same immoral people who helped the infection along for the purpose of fulfilling their own agenda.

Was the virus seeded by dark elements within our ruling class?  Certainly federal incentives helped the diagnosis of coronavirus. But was the virus seeded?

It’s important to ask this question because the spread of the disease seemingly makes no sense. Plus there is an inconsistency in the logic from the good professor at God’s university as well as Dr. Fauci and the rest of the usual suspects who undyingly support whatever the conventional wisdom may be.

Let’s ask this question: What causes a surge in this disease?  It’s the same question we asked three months ago, and six months ago, to no satisfaction.

Is the disease spread by people congregating together indoors? Or is it the cold weather?  Or both?

In the summer we have warm weather and people outdoors; In the winter we have cold weather and people indoors.

Now, we have already spoken about the potential fallacy of indoor habitation as a contributor to the coronavirus surge. If getting sick were solely a matter of being indoors, then why did we see a surge in the summer?  Weren’t people outdoors in the summer months?

Well, maybe people were indoors during the summer. Governor DeSantis in Florida told us that one of the causes of the summer surge was people going indoors to get out of the heat.  In other words it was the cold air conditioning that was causing the surge.

Prior studies of SARS in 2003 loan support to this claim.

If Governor DeSantis is correct, then people are indoors during the summer, and the argument of the good professor from the University of Pennsylvania tends to be right, yet possibly wrong.

Are you confused?

You needn’t be.

To resolve this, let’s talk about this particular conspiracy theory of the government, or ruling class, seeding the disease.

Oh, yes, we must.

If we postulate that the virus has spread to everybody by now, which there is no reason to believe that it couldn’t, then there would be no need for the government to seed the disease.

So let’s assume that the virus has spread to everyone by now if only for the sake of getting rid of the conspiracy theory.

People who wear suits and ties don’t like conspiracy theories anyway.  They only like conspiracies when people throw successful surprise birthday parties, have sex; or when Seal Team Six takes down bin Laden.

So let’s cut to the chase and clear up the confusion.

It seems logical that the summer surge occurred when people went indoors to get out of the hot heat and then subjected themselves to cold air conditioning (which produces a cold, dry environment).  We know that people are more susceptible in a colder, drier environment.  We know that the virus has greater survivability in a cooler, drier environment. It may also be possible that the virus is reactivated in a cooler, drier environment.

Heat protects. Humidity protects.

Perhaps the current winter surge is coming about because we have colder, drier weather in the Midwest.

Perhaps being indoors In itself does not contribute to the disease. Maybe close  contact with  other people is not causing the disease.  Maybe it is the coolness and dryness of the environment that is causing the surge.

Heat and humidity kill the virus. Cold-weather lowers immunity.

If we see a surge associated with bars and restaurants, it may be because those establishments are air-conditioned.

Does this theory sound tenable?

If it is, then the virus is already amongst us. We cannot spread it anymore than it has already spread.

The lockdown and face mask are then useless.

Our means of defense then is limited to turning off the air-conditioning in the summer while cranking up the heat in the winter. 

It might also be worthwhile to move many of these vulnerable elderly down south for the next six months.

But wait a minute. Let’s not move so fast. What about New York City? Why have we seen no dramatic surge there?

Isn’t it getting colder there as well?

And if the virus has spread to everybody by now, irrespective of the lockdown and  the face mask, shouldn’t New Yorkers and New Englanders be ready to see a surge.

Well, it’s about to get cold.  

If this theory is correct, they should.

If they do not, then we have to think of another theory.

We may have to retreat to conspiracy.

Conspiracy may be the truth.

Perhaps dark elements in the government are spreading this disease in order to keep the fear going so as to implement remote learning which will give them, ultimately, the indoctrination tools that they need to control the masses.  Personally, I think they’ve done a pretty good job already. Most people are pliable puppets only too willing to serve their master.

Perhaps by keeping the fear going the dark elements will be able to break the back of small business so as to increase the market share of their big corporations.  

Perhaps by breaking  the back of small healthcare providers the dark elements get one step closer to implementing their crony-capitalist driven national health service.  

Perhaps by implementing remote learning, the dark elements will be able to mass produce de-socialized automatons, who, lacking empathy, will become more effective killing machines in Corporate America’s never ending wars.

There are certainly a lot of incentives for the government and Corporate America to keep this disease going.

Maybe that’s why they instructed their celebrities to sell the disease back in March.  Maybe that’s why they had their celebrities screaming at us to stay at home. Maybe that’s why their celebrities had their talking points ready at the get-go:  Shelter in place, social distancing, flatten the curve.

Sing it with me.  Shelter in place, social distancing, flatten the curve.

This conspiracy sounds plausible especially when we note that Corporate America had its plastic shields up and ready to go at their retail outlet checkout counters within a week of the lockdown.

But is such a conspiracy the truth?

Many can not go there.  Many will not go there.  

But we may have to go there if the logic from our authorities does not hold up.

Cops know, and doctors know, that when a story doesn’t add up something is amiss.

It’s totally rational for us to think about conspiracy when facts don’t add up.

It’s totally legitimate for us to question the authorities when the facts don’t add up.

So people are moving indoors and that is what is causing the surge, eh?  Well, are people in New York going to move indoors during the winter? If they do, and we don’t see a dramatic NYC surge, what does that then mean?

What will God from God’s university say?

Will he say that New Yorkers are not suffering because they were good children and locked down?

Is it possible that New Yorkers took the proper course of action.

Dr. Fauci thinks so.

But is it so?

It certainly is possible that if you lock everyone down in their house, and prevent anyone from coming into your city, that you can prevent a  surge.

But at what cost?

And will it solve the problem?

Will the coronavirus go away just because you wait in your house?

How long can you wait in your house?

These are important questions because our true leaders in Corporate America may be champing at the bit to institute another lockdown in the United States of America.

If the experience of the United Kingdom is a guide, that’s exactly what we are in store for.

Sincerely,

Archer Crosley, MD

Copyright 2020 Archer Crosley All Rights Reserved

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