Hope After The Crash

To those of you who have lost money in cryptocurrency, here is my advice to you.

Don’t get depressed.

Don’t turn to drugs.

The world is not going to end.

You are young, and you have plenty of time to recover.

You have a lot of years left in you.

Things are never as bad or as good as they seem to be.

Take a few deep breaths and try to learn from this experience.

Write down on a piece of paper the lessons that you have learned.

If you have lost all your money, or a sizable chunk of that money, you now understand that the media always goes to extremes.

The media always looks on the bright side when the market is going good; the media always looks on the dark side when the market is going bad.

That’s why the vast majority of the people lose their money.

The media is often not your friend.

You always have to employ equanimity when evaluating the markets. You have to temper your greed, and you have to temper your fears.

Secondly, never bet more than you can afford to lose.

As a smaller investor, you don’t have access to all the information that is out there. You have no idea what these CEOs and their lieutenants are doing.

They could be robbing the company blind, and you wouldn’t know it.

And, yes, they do lie.

If you are going to bet the ranch on anything in life, bet the ranch on yourself.

Never bet the ranch on somebody else.

Thirdly, nobody can predict the future.

Nobody.

The best thing you can do is avoid all these technical analysts who claim they can predict the future by looking at graphs from the past.

It can’t be done.

It looks like it can be done because they point to events that have already transpired. Then they direct your attention to patterns that preceded major recessions.

They make it look easy.

If it were that easy, everybody would do it, and everybody would be a billionaire.

But everybody isn’t a billionaire.

A better approach is to think about the vehicle that you are investing in, read as much as you can about it, listen to as much as you can about it, and then think about it some more.

Ask a lot of questions along the way.

It’s also helpful for you to invest in stocks and vehicles that you believe in.

In my life, I made a significant amount of money in Apple Computer and Las Vegas Sands. I made that money because I used those products, and I believed in those products.

Currently I have my money invested in Amazon and Bitcoin.

That’s it. Just those two.

I use Amazon. I like Amazon. I will continue to use Amazon.

Amazon makes my life easier. I don’t have to run out to a store and waste hours looking for something that isn’t there.

It is that belief in the company that will sustain me when the fearmongers move into action.

Now, of course, I am not going to be stupid. I’ve only invested a certain portion of my money with Amazon.

I’m going to hold money back because I don’t know where the markets are going. Maybe the markets are going down.

As it turns out, that’s where I believe the markets are going. I believe that the Fed has not been aggressive in taming inflation and that the stock market will drop another 10 to 20% more off its high.

I want to have some money in reserve so I can buy more Amazon when the market falls.

I believe that Amazon is the Sears Roebuck of this century.

Still, I’m not going to be totally stupid. I’m not going to invest every last dime I have in Amazon, because I have no idea what the future will hold.

Just as Sears Roebuck fell, so will Amazon fall someday. Maybe this will happen tomorrow.

Therefore I will temper my greed and buy less than I would like to buy.

The same goes for Bitcoin.

I believe in Bitcoin. I think Bitcoin is a valuable store of value for me.

When Bitcoin falls, I will buy some more, but I am not going to bet the ranch on Bitcoin.

I’m not going to bet the ranch because I have no idea what the government and the whales will do to it.

One more piece of advice, please.

Don’t put too much faith in these CEOs who show up on television.

They’re there for a reason.

They are there too sell their company, not necessarily to look out for your best interest.

There are many examples of hucksters who look impressive and effective on news shows and commercials.

The benchmark for me is Robert Brennan of First Jersey Securities.

When he was pitching his firm, he would show up in front of a helicopter.

He would ask you to grow with him as he flew over the Grand Coulee Dam.

It was a very effective ad.

He looked like a man of action. His company, First Jersey Securities, looked like it had its shit in gear.

Unfortunately, First Jersey Securities was a pump and dump scheme.

Robert Brennan was convicted of securities fraud and was sentenced to nine years in jail.

First Jersey Securities went bankrupt.

Caveat Emptor.

These are the lessons that have taken me a lifetime to learn.

If I had learned these lessons at the age of 20, I would’ve been a wealthy man by now.

I’m doing OK, but I could’ve done a lot better.

I want you to be a wealthy person when you are my age.

Don’t give up. Don’t kill yourself. Don’t descend into drugs and alcohol.

There is hope.

Sincerely,

Archer Crosley

Copyright 2022 Archer Crosley All Rights Reserved

Stick To What You Know

Hey now, young person, I want to give you some advice on your life.

I want to save you a lot of money and a lot of misery.

Whatever you choose to do in this world, stick to one career.

One career is enough.

A man can’t often wear two hats in life. If he tries to wear two hats, he wears no hat at all.

I understand; it’s difficult to stick to one career.

After a while the career becomes somewhat routine. Excitement tends to wear off. You feel the urge to move into something else.

My response: It’s even more difficult to balance two careers, or, worse, to shift careers.

Try to resist the urge to move on to something else.

Try to not be influenced too heavily by stories like Charif Souki that you read about in the New York Times today.

This Lebanese entrepreneur owned the restaurant Mezzaluna in Los Angeles.

This was the restaurant in which Nicole Brown Simpson ate her last meal.

According to the story, the owner, Charif Souki, lost interest in the restaurant business and decided to venture into something else: Liquefied Natural Gas.

The article states that he didn’t know anything about natural gas before going into it.

So he started a company called Chenier which he then grew into a leviathan as far revenues are concerned.

Do you feel the pull? Why can’t I do something like that, you ask yourself.

Try to resist these stories.

Many a people have lost all their money venturing into things of which they know nothing.

Remember that the media generally tends to simplify success. In these stories they don’t always tell you the full story.

Or they bury the truth in a throwaway sentence that you might skim over – such as Mr. Souki being an investment banker prior to being a restaurant owner.

I don’t know the full story of Mr. Charif Souki, but I can guarantee you there’s more to this story of success than we know.

Yes, I suppose it’s possible that Charif Souki is a super talented genius who can master new fields very quickly, but I doubt it.

I suspect that he had skills already in place through a lifetime of learning that made him a natural for that field.

This is why the stories of success in the media are often very dangerous.

These stories incite people into moving into something in which they know nothing, and what often transpires is catastrophe.

If he can do it, I can do it is what people start thinking.

This is encouraged by the media’s promotion of possibility thinking. All things are possible according to famous media personalities.

Don’t limit yourself, they implore.

I’ve got a better idea.

Stick to what you know.

All things are possible, but all things are not possible to people who have not prepared and who know nothing about a particular field.

It takes years to develop contacts and to learn the tricks of the trade that will make you successful in a field of endeavor.

It’s often easier to learn those tricks when you are young. It’s not so easy to learn those tricks when you are older.

You can’t teach an old dog new tricks. There is a lot of truth in that old adage.

One of the keys in life is to figure out what you are good at and what you are not good at, then take those strengths and parlay your existing career into something more expansive.

Switching careers and venturing into something completely different than what you are suited for is not what I would recommend.

Don’t live someone else’s life.

Again, stick to what you know.

I understand your drive to change the world, and to be the center of attention.

Perhaps you are feeling as if you are missing out in life because you are not Elon Musk or Bill Gates.

Stick to your own game; be who you are.

Do what you have been trained to do.

That’s enough.

Sincerely,

Archer Crosley

Copyright 2022 Archer Crosley All Rights Reserved

Rob Strikes Again

As I have stated several times before, Rob Manfred will ruin baseball.

His latest announcement, and I assume venture, will be to institute automated calling of strike and balls by 2024.

That’s right, the judgment of the home plate umpire when it comes to the calling of strikes and balls will be eliminated.

A computer will do that for us. The results will be relayed to the umpire who will then weakly signal strike or ball.

I’m sure there are a lot of people who will be happy with this.

Players reportedly will be happy with this.

Fans reportedly will be happy with this.

Not me. It’s the first step on a slippery slope. Why have umpires at all? Why don’t we automate everything?

Say, does it necessarily follow that you should use technology just because you have it?

Must everything be perfect?

Must everything be improved upon?

Rob Manfred, as a dutiful graduate from Harvard University will once again prosecute Harvard University’s Third Reich ideology of perfection upon society.

Will it work?

Can man be perfected?

Does man desire to be perfected?

Is it a good idea to perfect man?

Time will be the ultimate judge here, but I think not.

In the case of baseball, automating of strikes and  balls is another step in removing humanity from the game.

The roadblock here is that we are all fundamentally human.

As such we all naturally gravitate toward imperfection in our lives in order to relax.

That’s why we like quirky singers and quirky actors. They don’t follow the rules.

They are different.

Our human minds become frustrated with too much order, logic and symmetry.

Logic, order, and symmetry place too much demand upon our fragile minds.

Imperfection in life relaxes us just as jazz music relaxes us. Jazz is an imperfect mishmash of notes that take irregularly irregular directions.

A Jackson Pollock painting relaxes us in a similar way.  We don’t have to think when we look at a Jackson Pollock painting.  That relaxation makes the painting more interesting and valuable to us.

Baseball is another form of entertainment.

We like baseball, at least most of us do, because it puts us at ease.

It’s a chance to get away from the rules of the regular world.

Even though we may not be fully cognizant of such, we go to a baseball game to see the irregularly irregular things that can happen.

We’re not just looking for a victory but also spectacular plays and spectacular screw-ups.

It is those screwups that are often more fun to watch than the spectacular plays.

We love it when the manager races out and screams in the umpire’s face.

We love it when a red-faced Aaron Boone gets ejected.

We die inside when a player lets a ball get through his legs.

We cringe when an outfielder drops a catchable fly ball.

The spectacular screwups additionally give us the opportunity to scream at the players and umpires.

Throw the bum out!

Drop dead, you loser!

Automating the calling of strikes and balls helps remove those spectacular screwups and thus make the game less interesting.

Baseball will become more boring and more predictable.

Say, I have an idea. As long as we are transforming baseball so that the calling of balls and strikes is perfect, why don’t we do the same for players as well?

As long as we were getting tired of umpires making mistakes, why don’t we have a baseball game where baseball players don’t make mistakes.

Why don’t we automate the players as well?

Wouldn’t it be more enjoyable if we had players who never made errors in  throwing or catching the ball?

Do you get my drift?

Imagine a baseball world where no third baseman ever overthrew the first baseman’s head.

Imagine a baseball world where no pitcher ever threw a wild pitch.

And as long as we are automating perfection in players, through either CGI, or soon to be coming cyborgs, why don’t we have the pitchers throw 102 mph fastballs on every single pitch?

Why should we stop with the umpire?

Indeed, we shouldn’t even begin.

So then why do it?

What does Major League Baseball get out of automating balls and strikes?

I can assure you that nothing happens in this society anymore unless it profits Harvard University and the greedy elite who run things around here.

What Harvard University gains is an endgame far more subtle:  The submission of humanity to algorithms and silicon-based computers.

This in turn leads to your submission to Harvard University as it is Harvard University and their lackeys who control the algorithms and software that control the automated calling of strikes and balls.

Beating you down from a million directions is key to continuing their economic oppression upon you.

That’s what Harvard gets out of it: More money and more power for the greedy elite.

Automating of balls and strikes also gives Harvard the opportunity to indoctrinate you into a world of mandatory perfection and the submission to it. Forget about what a human being might think; our algorithm is supreme; our algorithm is infallible.

Such submission helps engender a further sense of helplessness you have about your life.

You become adjusted to the idea of not being in control of your life, of accepting things the way they are, of not fighting back.

That  not fighting back, that lack of resistance, will in turn weaken you and transform you into a helpless serf for a thousand years and more.

Automating balls and strikes is just one brick in a greater plan to defeat you.

You may not think of it that way. You may think automating the calling of balls and strikes is just a way to improve a baseball game.

That’s precisely what Harvard wants you to think.

Harvard runs the Third Reich that was transported from Nazi Germany into America after WWII. The Third Reich under Josef Goebbels had firm control of sports and entertainment. If they instituted a policy, it was to cement the power of the state and the Nazi party.

Harvard is no different.

These people have a reason for everything.

They’re incredibly smart, but incredibly immoral.

They’re pagans.

Bye, bye, baseball.

Bye, bye, America.

Sincerely,

Archer Crosley

Copyright 2022 Archer Crosley All Rights Reserved

Yippie Ki Yay

I want you to enjoy the ride of the roller coaster that is Bitcoin.

I don’t want you to get scared.

If you’ve only invested what you can afford to lose, hold on tight and enjoy the ride.

It’s a steep roller coaster, and we are on the steepest slope to the bottom of hell.

Wheeeeeeeee!

Don’t get upset.

Don’t get mad.

This is the price you have to pay when you invest in a stock, a bond, or any other type of asset.

I believe that the price of Bitcoin will go down to $7,000.

That’s just my gut. Nobody can predict the future.

I don’t know what’s going on with Michael Saylor, who must be one of the bigger Bitcoin investors, but his company, Microstrategy, might be in for a tough ride if his pockets aren’t deep enough.

I’ve never been certain of Michael Saylor and his relationship with the powers that be.

He graduated from MIT, so we know he’s a smart guy, and a member of the club.

What I don’t know is whether he is secretly working with the powers that be, or whether he has betrayed the powers that be.

I can’t know that because I’m not in the club.

To begin with, the club is not in favor of Bitcoin. The club is not interested in Bitcoin succeeding, at least not for you the regular investor.

The club loves its fiat currency.

The last thing that the club wants is for regular investors like you to be investing in Bitcoin. That’s why they’re taking it down.

They’re trying to scare you into selling everything you own in Bitcoin.

Michael Saylor is doing the opposite.

Michael Saylor is currently working against the club’s interest because he is telling everybody to invest in Bitcoin.

If he has truly betrayed the club, and is not playing a game with us, then the club will take Michael Saylor down in spades.

It’s one thing for me as a non-club member to go against the club’s wishes. I’ve never received any perks from the club, at least none that I know of.

Michael Saylor, on the other hand, has received all the perks from the club.

He may not know that.

He may think that he was the one who built Microstrategy into a billion dollar enterprise.

I don’t want to say that he didn’t help build it into a billion dollar enterprise, but it was the club that made it a billion dollar enterprise.

No club, no billion.

It was the club that got him all the contacts and customers that made Microstrategy the company that it was.

There are huge advantages to being a member of the club.

At the same time there are huge responsibilities to being a member of the club.

Being a member of the club means that you do what the club wants you to do.

Being a member of the club means that you don’t go against what the club wants you to do.

Since Michael Saylor has clearly gone against what the club wants (unless he is a mole and is playing a game with us) the club is going to teach him a lesson in spades.

They are going to cut him down to size.

They are going to make him bleed to his last drop.

For that reason I think Bitcoin will go down to $7,000 and possibly lower.

Enjoy the ride.

If Bitcoin plunges to $7,000, I will still be hesitant about buying, but I probably will buy. I’ll probably borrow some money and invest in Bitcoin.

The money I’ve invested already, as far as I am concerned, is gone, out the window.,

I don’t want to afford to put in $20,000 more, but I will if I have to.

Until then, I will enjoy the ride as it plunges into hell.

Wheeeeeeeee!

Yippie Ki Yay, mother.

PS: It is possible that Michael Saylor is acting secretly on behalf of the power elite as a Pied Piper of Hamlin – leading innocent people into buying and then selling into a plunging market, thus fleecing them out of their money. Then, when the coast is clear and nobody is looking, he flips the purchased Bitcoin back to the power elite who have been secretly supporting him all along.

Sincerely,

Archer Crosley

Copyright 2022 Archer Crosley All Rights Reserved

Bitcoin’s Future

Here, I want you to look at this.

I plotted out average Bitcoin prices for these years.

2015: 325

2018: 3,250

2021: 33,250

Let’s extrapolate with some hedge room.

2026: 330,000

2031: 3,330,000

Now, would you accept that as a return for any Bitcoin you have now?

I think you would be crazy not to.

So then why doesn’t everyone do this?

For the same reason I didn’t do it with stocks: I got scared.

We see the troughs that bitcoin goes through when it plunges. Plus, the media scares the daylights out of us.

No one can scare you like the media.

Whether it’s enlarging sunspots, Joro spiders parachuting down into your community, Y2K, or any other type of calamity they happen to dream up, nobody can scare you like the media.

Don’t forget about the near-miss asteroids.

The media’s programming of fear is relentless.

Fortunately, none of these issues the media warned us about was of any significant consequence.

Generally speaking, the stock market and Bitcoin have recovered from tremendous losses before.

This isn’t to say that you shouldn’t look into things when the media begins scaring you.

What I’m trying to tell you is that things aren’t always as bad or as good as they seem to be.

The media has a way of always looking on the upside when the markets are up, and always looking on the bad side when the markets are down.

If you want to be a successful investor you have to employ equanimity.

I invested in $51,000 in cryptocurrency the past year. I have converted all of that into Bitcoin. My net investment is now worth about $21,000.

That looks like a bad deal, right?

It looks like I should sell, especially since they are predicting that Bitcoin will fall to $7000.

Well, even if they do I’m going to have to stay in for the ride.

That’s what I did about a decade ago when I invested in Las Vegas Sands. I purchased Las Vegas Sands as it was plummeting.

The reason I kept buying was because I believed in the product. I would stay at the Venetian all the time before and after the 2008 collapse.

It was my home away from home.

I knew they had a good product. I knew they had a future. I read the income statements and balance sheets. I knew they were expanding throughout Asia. I would listen to Sheldon Adelson on conference calls. He didn’t seem worried at all. He remarked sardonically on one conference call that the media thought that his company was going to hell in a hand basket.

Obviously he was of a different opinion.

I kept buying into Las Vegas Sands because I had confidence in him and the company.

That is what calmed my media-induced fears.

I feel the same way about Bitcoin.

Now, of course, there is no CEO of Bitcoin that I can listen to on a conference call.

But I can listen to people who know more than me, people like Max Kaiser and Michael Saylor.

They don’t seem worried, and I assume that they have large investments in Bitcoin, just like Sheldon Adelson had a large investment in Las Vegas Sands.

Listening to their arguments, what they say seems to make sense to me.

Now, I don’t think that Bitcoin will have the huge returns that it did early on, but I still think there is room for significant growth.

There is even more room for growth when Bitcoin plunges some more.

Will I buy more, if Bitcoin plunges to $7000?

Probably not because I’ve already exceeded the limit that I have set for myself when investing in any particular stock or asset class.

Just because I have confidence in something doesn’t mean I’m going to bet my whole fortune on it.

Now if you were asking me to bet on my Pediatric practice, of course I would invest in it. It’s mine. And I get to call the shots on what I do on an every day basis.

Unfortunately, for Bitcoin, there are a lot of enemies out there who can do a lot of damage to it.

I can’t control all those factors.

Nor can I ever afford to underestimate the ruthlessness and greed of the misguided power elite who currently view Bitcoin as an enemy. There is a reason why the power elite are rich, and that reason is not altruism.

Nevertheless, I think the future for Bitcoin is bright, regardless of the fear the media conjures up.

Copyright 2022 Archer Crosley All Rights Reserved

Our Elections

Are our elections legitimate?

It depends which ones you’re talking about.

If you mean the ones for dogcatcher and your local representative, yes, I think they are.

If you’re talking about presidential elections and elections for senator and governor, I would say that the significant races are not legitimate.

Let’s just say that if the power elite want a certain person in power, they will move heaven and earth to achieve that result.

That doesn’t mean that they will always prevail; but it does mean that they will try to rig the election.

I don’t know why this should be a surprise to Americans as elections have been rigged for centuries now, not only here in the United States, but abroad as well.

Napoleon and his brothers rigged plebiscites in France in the early 1800s. They wouldn’t even bother to use numbers that would indicate legitimacy. They would use rounded numbers such as 16 million to 4 million.

Now, that’s audacity.

Unfortunately, in the United States we have a ruling power elite that insists on prosecuting this Frank Capra mirage of honesty upon our presidential elections.

Many Americans are happy to live in this fantasy world despite evidence to the contrary.

There is no convincing true believers that the election of Joe Biden in 2020 was illegitimate just as there is no convincing true believers that the election of George Bush in 2000 was illegitimate.

The myth of election integrity is a vital part of our American culture now.

The ruling elites need you to believe in this myth so that they can continue their policies which enrich them and impoverish you.

Numerous examples abound. Look at the problems around you.

Better yet, look at what isn’t around you.

Where is high-speed rail that can safely take you to another city 250 miles away in one to two hours? Wouldn’t that be a lot more convenient for you in the age of Uber and Lyft? Wouldn’t it be better for you to save all that mileage on your car while taking the train, and then taking an Uber when you get there?

That’s one example. I’m sure you can think of more than a few off the top of your head.

Where is the economy that makes its own useful things for its own citizens? Instead we are given a war economy which makes things to be used for killing other people in far away places like Yemen and Ukraine.

Why is that?

Why can we not fix homelessness? You know, of course, that homelessness is a racket now. Yes, that’s right. Most of the federal money that goes to fix homelessness largely goes not to the people who need it, but to the hucksters who profit off the homeless. Those would be the slumlords who kick out long term renters and convert their units to $100 a night bonanzas.

A real solution would entail preventing homelessness by giving people real opportunities with well-paying jobs. But, you see, that doesn’t profit the power elite who profit off misery, thus they will never undertake measures to help you.

A legitimate electoral system will never be a panacea to fixing our problems, but it is a step in the right direction.

There is no reason why we cannot have a secure electronic method of voting which includes a reasonable method of secure identification.

My various banks over the years have not made a mistake by even as much as a penny in over fifty years, so why isn’t that possible in our elections?

It’s isn’t possible because the ruling elite don’t trust you.

They think you are a bunch of schmucks who are too stupid to understand basic issues.

To a certain extent that may be true; there are a lot of stupid people out there. But, there are a lot of smart people out there too who don’t get any opportunity to express themselves except through an election.

An illegitimate election process disenfranchises them.

A legitimate election process is a threat to the ruling elite who are focused on money-making rackets such as war, welfare, and the prison industry rather than your welfare.

What would a legitimate election process look like?

It would not only involve electronic identification of voters but also a decentralization of the electoral process in the manner that our Founding Fathers had envisioned.

Our Founding Fathers weren’t stupid, you know. They weren’t born yesterday and dried under a leaf. They had a lot of experience with elections and corruption, and they knew a thing or two.

They devised a system that has been gradually transformed over the past two centuries. Your senators are not elected in the manner that the Founding Fathers had intended. That was all changed with the 17th amendment. That was a mistake.

Under the old system, your US Senators were chosen by your state legislature, not by direct vote. While it may seem to be an improvement to have you choose your US Senator, it really is not. It really works to your disadvantage. In several ways.

  1. Your state representative, who you can know, knows the global issues of your state better than you do. Your US senator is supposed to represent the interests of the state in which you live, not what the national conversation is on abortion or homelessness. Does this make sense? Under direct vote by citizen, the national media can pivot the election of the senator on national issues – not local issues more relevant to you. Under direct vote by citizen, your senator becomes a viceroy from Washington – which is what the power elite desire.
  2. You can easily know your state representative who in turn will know the senator who will represent you in Washington. Thus you are one person removed from knowing a senator – which is pretty good. You can then know the guy who knows the guy. Currently, you don’t know your senator; your senator doesn’t know you. Furthermore your senator doesn’t have the time for you because you are one amongst millions. Your senator currently has more time for Hollywood celebrities and leaders of corporations who he or she assumes represents you.

It’s no coincidence that America has become a centralized war-making machine since the 17th amendment was adopted. If we are to return it to a decent republic that 17th amendment needs to be modified or repealed.

The argument for the 17th amendment was that US senators were chosen in smoke-filled rooms, and that, because of political conflict, some US senator weren’t seated at all. My response to that would be the following: Yes, senator were chosen in smoke-filled rooms, but it was your smoke-filled room with representatives that you selected. It’s far better for it to be your smoke-filled room than Washington’s smoke-filled room. As for US senators not being seated at all, a simple tie-breaker methodology could fix that. It would be far better to have a coin flip to elect a US senator than to adopt the 17th amendment which has given us this dysphoric war economy that we now live under.

Likewise the presidential election was changed also. You the citizen as originally intended did not vote for president; that was done by members of Congress – which was the superior way, because, again, they know the issues better, and secondly, because you can know the guy who knows the guy. With direct vote, it’s virtually impossible for you to know the president. With direct vote, the president is elected by the media, controlled by the power elite, who are only too happy to chaperone you into the cattle pens of opinion that they desire. Additionally, the presidential campaign becomes a joke, a silly contest of one-liners and tearjerker rejoinders.

It would be far better, and cheaper, to have our president chosen by members of Congress than by us. Do you see why? You will know the guy, who knows the guy who elects the president. The presidents in turn will know the guy who knows the guy who knows you. When you know someone they are more responsive to you because they know who butters their bread.

You aren’t getting that now. What you’re getting now are senators and presidents who are too far removed from you.

An electoral system of indirect election of senators and presidents is the superior model. That combined with rational and reasonable secure voting should make for a better life for Americans.

Copyright 2022 Archer Crosley All Rights Reserved

Recessions are Good

Recessions are good.

You wouldn’t know that by listening to the mainstream media. They think recessions are bad.

It’s a good thing the media is not in charge of the human body. If it were, your body would never sleep.

Sleep is good.

Recessions are good.

Sleep gives your body time to repair itself. It gives the body the opportunity to focus on ridding itself of the excess toxins that have built up in the body.

When you are asleep, your body is in a relative state of inactivity. In other words you’re not continuing to build up those toxins.

What’s wrong with that?

Did you sleep last night?

What happens if you only sleep two hours per night?

Just as a body needs to sleep, so does an economy.

A recession gives the economy the time to rid itself of its toxins.

The toxins are the hucksters, scammers, and con-men who flourish in times of expansion.

The toxins are also those unfruitful projects that are undertaken when cash is flush.

When times are good, hucksters thrive.

Ponzi scheme artists like Bernie Madoff did very well when the economy was good.

When the economy goes south and cash is tight, Ponzi schemers don’t have the income in cash from new investors to pay off the old investors.

Thus the scheme fails and is ultimately exposed.

That’s a good thing.

Another good thing that happens in a recession is that because money is tight, companies start cutting back on all the unnecessary unfruitful expenses.

You do it as a person, and companies do it on a company level.

Just as you may get rid of your gym membership, or your HBO membership when times are tight, companies get rid of all the stupid things that they invested in – such as self-driving cars.

Apple got involved in self-driving cars. What did Apple know about the automobile industry? Nothing.

Why did they get involved? Because everybody else was getting involved, because cash was flush, and because everyone else was stupid and hadn’t thought it out.

Perhaps Apple was told that the train was leaving the station, and that they weren’t on it. This is a popular expression on Wall Street. You will hear this one a few times in your career.

Ah, yes, the fear of abandonment; it works every time.

Well, it would’ve been prudent to ask where the train was going to.

When a recession hits, Apple will be forced to jettison this stupid idea.

This is a good thing.

When times are tight, you focus on what is essential.

You tighten up your game.

You invest your resources in your core business.

You stop getting involved in things in which you have no business being involved.

The end result is that once again you become a lean, mean, fighting machine.

When everything gets tightened up, and you improve your game, magically you wake up and are refreshed and ready to fight even stronger than you were before.

And all of this was made possible by sleep or in the case of an economy a recession.

Recessions are not bad things.

Recessions are necessary things.

Recessions are good things.

Never be scared of a recession. It is a necessary part of life.

Sincerely,

Archer Crosley

Copyright 2022 Archer Crosley All Rights Reserved

All in on Bitcoin

I’ve spent some time today listening to Peter Schiff talk about Bitcoin and his arguments against this particular cryptocurrency.

To begin with. I like listening to Peter Schiff. He’s one of the few economists out there who is able to communicate effectively without devolving into eco-babble.

That’s probably why he has been a successful author.

He has an engaging personality.

Nevertheless I disagree with his arguments against Bitcoin.

I will go over a few of his arguments with my comments.

Number one, he says that Bitcoin is not unique. He states that anyone can make a cryptocurrency. This argument is as valid as saying that anyone can make a burger.

Yes, this is true, but not everyone can be McDonald’s.

McDonald’s is a multi-billion dollar corporation because they have figured out a way to make a reliable burger that is tasty. McDonald’s value also comes about because they invest a tremendous amount of money in advertising.

This is Bitcoin‘s primary advantage. They were there first, and they are always in the news.

That’s a big advantage. That’s why they’re number one.

If Ethereum had been first out of the block, they would have been the primary cryptocurrency.

The same could be said of Polkadot or Cardano.

But they weren’t. Bitcoin was first.

Secondly, Peter Schiff makes the argument that there is no value in Bitcoin.

He says that you can’t eat it like a commodity. You can’t wear it like a piece of gold. It doesn’t provide interest as a bond does, nor does it provide a dividend as a stock may do.

All of this is true. And yet it is not true.

Bitcoin does have value in that it provides a store of value. That’s what Bitcoin is. It is nothing more than a giant ledger that is distributed out on thousands upon thousands of servers around the world.

The whole point of Bitcoin is to provide a standard which cannot be inflated by man.

Peter Schiff points to the wild swings in Bitcoin as evidence that it is a pyramid scheme.

He sees those wild swings as evidence that Bitcoin is nothing more than a scam in which the early investors sell to the suckers who come in later.

Well, perhaps to a certain extent that is true. I don’t doubt that there are people who are cashing in their winnings.

But isn’t that also true of the stock market?

I’ve listen to Jim Cramer for years now, and he is always advising people to sell high and buy low.

That’s just human nature.

But does that mean that the stock market is a pyramid scheme?

Not necessarily, although I do believe it is. Ha ha.

I suppose if we look at the stock market and Bitcoin as a market place where early investors sell high and make a profit, we can view it as a pyramid scheme.

But that doesn’t mean that everyone is viewing the stock market or Bitcoin in that way.

There are many people who are investing in Bitcoin because they are tired of fiat currency destroying the value of their money.

There are many people who are investing in Bitcoin because they feel that the ledger that is Bitcoin will grow in value as more people come on board.

That’s one of the reasons why Bitcoin is increasing in value.

Bitcoin is increasing in value because more and more people are buying into the concept of this distributed ledger as a means of safeguarding their money.

Just as McDonald’s increases in value through goodwill, that intangible asset that signifies that this company provides a valuable service, Bitcoin is also increasing in value through goodwill.

That’s part of the reason why Bitcoin exploded in value.

Nevertheless, Peter Schiff demeans Bitcoin while extolling the value of gold.

To begin with, gold is not all that useful a metal when it comes to industry. Silver is the far more useful metal. Gold is used more for ornamental value – jewelry.

Yes, it’s true you can’t wear Bitcoin like you can wear gold.

However, Bitcoin is far more useful as a fungible asset than gold.

I don’t want gold bars being shipped to my house. I don’t want to have to worry about someone stealing my gold bars.

I don’t fully trust these gold funds either.

Bitcoin is attractive to me because I can purchase it on my phone and I can access it readily. If I want to dispense of it I can do that also, and I can do that very easily. That makes Bitcoin extremely useful and therefore valuable to me. Actually, it makes it more attractive and more useful than gold.

These are the reasons why I am investing in Bitcoin.

To tell you the truth, after this recent drawdown, I took the rest of my cryptocurrencies and converted them into Bitcoin.

I got rid of everything else. I got rid of Ethereum, Cardono, Polkadot, OMG, Ankr, Dogecoin, Shiba.

I am all in on Bitcoin.

Just so you know, my initial investment was 53,000. Today my value stands at 20,000.

I don’t like taking the hit, but I have to go with my gut.

I don’t think the powers that be will shut down Bitcoin. I think they would be fools if they did.

Bitcoin cannot only serve the needs of the regular people, it can also serve the needs of the rich. The rich need a hedge against inflation also.

Bitcoin will never replace the dollar or other national currencies, nor should it.

In that respect, Bitcoin is necessary and therefore valuable.

Sincerely,

Archer Crosley

Copyright 2022 Archer Crosley All Rights Reserved

All In on Bitcoin

I’ve spent some time today listening to Peter Schiff talk about Bitcoin and his arguments against this particular cryptocurrency.

To begin with. I like listening to Peter Schiff. He’s one of the few economists out there who is able to communicate effectively without devolving into eco-babble.

That’s probably why he has been a successful author.

He has an engaging personality.

Nevertheless I disagree with his arguments against Bitcoin.

I will go over a few of his arguments with my comments.

Number one, he says that Bitcoin is not unique. He states that anyone can make a cryptocurrency. This argument is as valid as saying that anyone can make a burger.

Yes, this is true, but not everyone can be McDonald’s.

McDonald’s is a multi-billion dollar corporation because they have figured out a way to make a reliable, tasty burger. McDonald’s value also comes about because they invest a tremendous amount of money in advertising.

This is Bitcoin‘s primary advantage. They were there first, and they are always in the news.

That’s a big advantage. That’s why they’re number one.

If Ethereum had been first out of the block, they would have been the primary cryptocurrency.

The same could be said of Polkadot or Cardano.

But they weren’t. Bitcoin was first.

Secondly, Peter Schiff makes the argument that there is no value in Bitcoin.

He says that you can’t eat it like a commodity. You can’t wear it like a piece of gold. It doesn’t provide interest as a bond does, nor does it provide a dividend as a stock may do, or at least used to.

All of this is true. And yet it is not true.

Bitcoin does have value in that it provides a store of value. That’s what Bitcoin is. It is nothing more than a giant ledger that is distributed out upon thousands upon thousands of servers around the world.

The whole point of Bitcoin is to provide a standard which cannot be inflated by man.

Peter Schiff points to the wild swings in Bitcoin as evidence that it is a pyramid scheme.

He sees those wild swings as evidence that Bitcoin is nothing more than a scam in which the early investors sell to the suckers who come in later.

Well, perhaps to a certain extent that is true. I don’t doubt that there are people who are cashing in their winnings.

But isn’t that also true of the stock market?

I’ve listen to Jim Cramer for years now, and he is always advising people to sell high and buy low.

That’s just human nature.

But does that mean that the stock market is a pyramid scheme?

Not necessarily, although I do believe it is. Ha ha.

I suppose if we look at the stock market and Bitcoin as a market place where early investors sell high and make a profit, we can view it as a pyramid scheme.

But that doesn’t mean that everyone is viewing the stock market or Bitcoin in that way.

There are many people who are investing in Bitcoin because they are tired of fiat currency destroying the value of their money.

There are many people who are investing in Bitcoin because they feel that the ledger that is Bitcoin will grow in value as more people come on board.

That’s one of the reasons why Bitcoin is increasing in value.

Bitcoin is increasing in value because more and more people are buying into the concept of this distributed ledger as a means of safeguarding their money.

Just as McDonald’s increases in value through goodwill, that intangible asset that signifies that this company provides a valuable service, Bitcoin is also increasing in value through goodwill.

That’s part of the reason why Bitcoin exploded in value.

Nevertheless, Peter Schiff demeans Bitcoin while extolling the value of gold.

To begin with, gold is not all that useful a metal when it comes to industry. Silver is the far more useful metal. Gold is used more for ornamental value – jewelry.

Yes, it’s true you can’t wear Bitcoin like you can wear gold.

However, Bitcoin is far more useful as a fungible asset than gold.

I don’t want gold bars being shipped to my house. I don’t want to have to worry about someone stealing my gold bars.

I don’t fully trust these gold funds either.

Bitcoin is attractive to me because I can purchase it on my phone and I can access it readily. If I want to dispense of it I can do that also, and I can do that very easily. That makes Bitcoin extremely useful and therefore valuable to me. Actually, it makes it more attractive and more useful than gold.

These are the reasons why I am investing in Bitcoin.

To tell you the truth, after this recent drawdown, I took the rest of my crypto currencies and converted them into Bitcoin.

I got rid of everything else. I got rid of Ethereum, Cardono, Polkadot, OMG, Ankr, Dogecoin, Shiba.

I am all in on Bitcoin.

Now, with that stated let me make one more point. Gold was not chosen as a standard for money in years past because it was flashy, useful, or had a return on the dollar.

It was chosen because it was rare. It couldn’t be suddenly inflated. And it was unlikely to be thrown in trash.

Bitcoin shares those qualities. If administered in an uncorrupted manner Bitcoin can work for everyone.

Sincerely,

Archer Crosley

Copyright 2022 Archer Crosley All Rights Reserved

I Support the Founding Fathers, Old and New, Those Traitorous Insurrectionists

Are you one of these people who condemns the January 6 insurrection?

Are you a wimpy, wussy bitch like Sean Hannity who condemns the invasion of the Capitol?

Not me.

Are you sick and tired of these pseudo-conservative cowards who constantly egg people on to do something about the unfairness in society, and then, when the people act, condemn what they do?

Why should any of us condemn what those brave insurrectionists did on January 6?

Do you condemn the American colonists and the Founding Fathers for standing up to the British?

They would’ve been hung, you know, by that tyrant and motherfucker, King George, if they had failed. That’s what British monarchs did.

They also impaled their insurrectionists on poles outside the city of London up until the 1800s, not too long ago.

Oh, you say, it’s not the same thing. You can’t compare the Founding Fathers and the insurrectionists on January 6.

Oh, yes, it is the same thing.

It’s exactly the same thing.

That’s why I don’t condemn what the insurrectionists did.

Yes, I know the protesters were goaded into entering the Capitol building. I hear you, babe. They were.

Nevertheless, they were breaking the law. Even though it was a set up, they were breaking the law, and they knew it.

So fucking what?

The American colonists who rebelled against the British were breaking the law also.

Newsflash! The British were the law in America in the early 1700s.

The American colonists were not rebelling against a foreign invading force.

The British were America.

The joint was called British America.

There was no United States of America at the time.

What the people who entered the Capitol building on January 6 did was the same thing that the American colonists did against the British: they were rebelling against the existing law and order.

Hello!!!

If you are going to condemn the insurrectionists on January 6, then you must also stand against Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, Benjamin Franklin, George Washington, and, yes, even the scoundrel, Alexander Hamilton.

You can’t have it both ways.

If you are going to condemn the insurrectionists on January 6, then you must condemn the Boston Tea Party.

That’s what that little wussy bitch, Sean Hannity, doesn’t understand.

That’s what that other coward, Tucker Carlson, doesn’t understand.

They fall all over themselves in condemning the insurrectionionists on January 6.

We must renounce violence, they speak in grave, measured tones.

Is that a fact?

Did George Washington renounce violence, Sean Hannity?

Did Thomas Jefferson renounce violence, Tucker Carlson?

Did James Madison renounce violence?

Did Alexander Hamilton renounce violence?

Did Betsy Ross renounce violence?

No, they did not. So why do Tucker Carlson and Sean Hannity renounce violence?

Wait a minute, here’s Oprah Winfrey.

Oprah Winfrey says in low measured tones that we must renounce violence. Her puppets nod approvingly.

Wait a minute, Oprah. Did Nat Turner renounce violence?

No, he did not. He led a slave rebellion. Would you prefer that he have renounced violence, as you recommend, and become a coward in the face of injustice?

I doubt it.

So then why do Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson renounce violence?

Could it be that they are, after all, corporate stooges who are more interested in their own pocketbooks.

Yes.

They renounce violence and denounce the January 6 insurrectionists because they want to keep their television shows. They don’t want to risk anything for American freedom.

They are stone cold cowards hiding behind their mommy’s skirt.

They are betrayers of the American experiment.

I support the insurrectionists 100%.

I am glad they invaded the Capitol building.

They are not American villains. They are American heroes.

That fucking Congress and those fucking elites stole an election. Moreover they betrayed the American people.

They stole the election for Joe Biden just as they stole the election for George Bush 20 years prior. Ha ha, Democrats. Ha ha, Republicans.

Our leaders have been betraying the American people for the last 100 years.

We’ve had nonstop war in this country. We’ve had outsourcing of jobs.

We have inflation out the ass. We have homeless rapidly filling our cities. Drugs and crime abound. Instead of well paying jobs we have gambling, celebrity culture, cheap gossip, and tattoos.

Instead of quality education which encourages students to think critically and learn, we have standardized tests which encourages rote memory and blind obedience. Is it any wonder that children are stressed out? Teen suicides are on the rise. Preteen suicides are on the rise. School shootings are now the norm.

We have had nobody sticking up for us.

Why would I want to go against those people who had the guts to do something about it?

I’m not going to fall over myself trying to condemn them. I’m going to announce my support for them.

They are not the ones who should be in jail. The ones who should be in jail are the very representatives who betrayed American values and who sold their souls to Corporate America.

There, I said it. And I’m not apologizing.

Fuck you, Sean Hannity, you amazing coward.

Ditto to Tucker Carlson.

Sincerely,

Archer Crosley

Copyright 2022 Archer Crosley All Rights Reserved